TORTINI

For your delectation and delight, desultory dicta on the law of delicts.

The Recrudescence of Ferebee – Part Two

July 1st, 2026

In 2010, almost 30 years after Ferebee was decided, the Solicitor General cited the case in an amicus brief before the Supreme Court case, in Matrixx Iniatives, Inc. v. Siracusano. The case was a securities fraud class action, which was dismissed initially by the trial court on consideration of the defendant’s motion that the complaint failed to allege causation supported by statistically significant studies. The Supreme Court would go on unanimously to reject causation as a criterion for establishing a prima facie case of securities fraud, which made statistical significance irrelevant. Because the FDA could (and later did) require the company to recall its product upon a showing that material evidence suggested that there might be a possible causally induced harm, the Court held that the plaintiff class did not have to allege causation.[1] The harm to the shareholders came in the form of management’s bullish financial projections for a product that was later recalled for safety concerns, even if the recalled product never was shown to cause any harm. The Solicitor General’s amicus brief advanced the Ferebee case as an example of a causal relationship that could be established “through consideration of multiple factors independent of statistical significance.”[2] Although the government’s amicus brief correctly discerned that the causal connection between paraquat exposure and pulmonary fibrosis was established without analytical epidemiologic studies, and the necessary tools of statistical analysis for such studies, the brief mistakenly placed the allegations that Zycam caused anosmia in the same conceptual framework as paraquat. Unlike paraquat toxicity, millions of people used Zycam for relief from cold and flu symptoms, and the alleged harm, anosmia, commonly occurs in the aftermath of colds and flu. The Zycam personal injury claims fared poorly in litigation because of the dearth of supportive evidence that was appropriate to support causation, as opposed to materiality in securities law.[3]

The Ferebee case correctly observed that epidemiology was not necessary to establish the causal claim involving paraquat dermal exposure and lung toxicity and fibrosis. At the time that Mr. Ferebee sustained extensive paraquat exposure as a result of his governmental employer’s extreme negligence, the scientific community fully accepted that paraquat exposure, by ingestion, inhalation, or dermal exposure caused systemic toxicity and deleterious lung effects. This “general causation” had been established by case reports and case series, along with studies of paraquat’s metabolic fate and distribution in humans and non-human animals (including non-human primates), and assessment of mechanistic effects in cells and tissues of the target organs affected by paraquat when it became systemically distributed in the human body.

About the time of the Ferebee litigation, a textbook on agricultural chemicals described the toxic effects of dipyridyl compounds in humans, including paraquat:

“Human Toxicology Experience: A considerable amount of clinical experience has been reported in the literature with over 100 cases of illness and/or death. The chemical is unique in the sense that there is not only an acute toxicity syndrome but, in addition, it has the ability to produce a delayed fibroblastic response in the lungs. The latter is usually the principal mechanism of death.

For industrial workers, paraquat is not considered very dangerous. Inhalation hazard is extremely low due to the low vapor pressure of the chemical. Nevertheless, protective respiratory equipment should be used particularly when other atmospheric contamination might occur. * * * On no occasion should an applicator be allowed to walk through drifting spray.” [4]

This textbook cited studies that suggested that dermal and respiratory exposure to paraquat did not appear to be a hazard to field applicators, despite the demonstration of absorption, as long as precautions against overexposure are taken.[5] The premise of the textbook discussion, that appropriate, well-known safety measures and protective gear are employed, was an important part of its analysis.

This early textbook discussion also flagged delayed lung fibrosis as the main problem caused by all modes of paraquat exposure, including dermal absorption:

“Although the acute symptoms of paraquat intoxication are of concern and are dangerous, the principal problem relates to the unique delayed manifestations of this chemical’s ability to produce a fibroblastic change in the lung which begins a number of days after absorption. * * * Experiments then found that it was possible to induce respiratory failure as a result of both dermal and aerosol routes of absorption (Newhouse, 1978).”[6]

An early review by the World Health Organization also emphasized that paraquat exposure was not expected to pose a health risk as long as safe work practices are followed:

“Occupational exposure to paraquat does not pose a health risk if the recommendations for use are followed and there is adherence to safe working practices.

                   *     *     *

In the small number of reported cases of paraquat poisoning allegedly resulting from occupational exposure, the cause can be identified as one or a combination of a number of factors, viz contamination of the skin with concentrated products, use of inadequately diluted solutions, use of faulty equipment, misuse of equipment (e.g., blowing blocked spray jets) or failure to take action in the event of contamination of skin or clothing.”[7]

Cases of dermal exposure to undiluted paraquat (20%), especially when exposure involved dermal exposure to the scrotum, can produce serious systematic toxicity.[8]

Ferebee was not given an appropriate respirator even when exposed to intense atmospheric contamination. He was drenched in paraquat spray, and remained drenched for hours. The gross negligence of his employer ensured that there would not be many similar cases, and that the tools of analytical epidemiology would not be available.[9] Indeed, epidemiology was never involved in determining general causation of paraquat exposure and lung fibrosis. Given that the outcome of interest would likely occur only in the context of negligent or intentional over-exposure, epidemiology will never be available.

Revisiting the Ferebee decision and the unique facts of the case place the decision in a better perspective for judging how courts continue to cite the case. The facts of the case readily distinguish the case, the claimed harm, and the manner of showing causation, from the facts in cancer, birth defects, and other cases where epidemiology is essential. The principle of charity would require the frequently quoted language on expert witness admissibility to be taken as a statement of the appellate standard of review for the jury’s determination of medical causation. Most of the glib characterizations of the Ferebee turn out to be wrong on close inspection of the case.

a. Ferebee was not a precedent under the Federal Rules of Evidence

Chevron’s evidentiary arguments were posed under Maryland law. Neither Rule 702[10] nor Rule 703[11] was ever mentioned in the district court or the Court of Appeals decisions.

b. Ferebee does not support a false distinction between scientific and legal causation.

In a later Bendectin birth defects case, Richardson v. Richardson-Merrell, Inc., the Court of Appeals struggled to distinguish Ferebee and its holdings based upon the ample epidemiologic evidence involving Bendectin. The Court mischaracterized Ferebee as not pertinent because it was on the “frontier of current medical and epidemiological inquiry.”[12] The Richardson court was impressed by the 20 years of research on Bendectin, including multiple epidemiologic studies. Unfortunately, the court was apparently ignorant of the irrelevance of epidemiology to the Ferebee case, and the extensive research base for determining the lung toxicity of paraquat. This ignorance seems to have resulted from Judge Mikva’s generalizations and overstatements of the paucity of evidence in Ferebee.

c. Ferebee does not support the false distinction between scientific and legal certainty.

Courts and commentators have attempted to explain the result in Ferebee by invoking what is largely a false distinction between scientific and legal certainty (or sufficiency). The Ferebee decision itself provided the ammunition by asserting a distinction between the requirements of scientific and legal decision making:

“In a courtroom, the test for allowing a plaintiff to recover in a tort suit of this type is not scientific certainly but legal sufficiency.”[13]

This was a common approach in distinguishing Ferebee, in the Bendectin litigation,[14] but it was picked up and promulgated by scientists and legal commentators.[15] Invoking this alleged distinction has become a common rhetorical move to excuse inadequate or insufficient evidence to support an expert witness’s causation opinion in litigation. The generalization from the facts of Ferebee to all scientific and legal questions of causation was wrong from the inception, and citations to a single case, Ferebee, cannot make those generalizations true.[16]

d. Ferebee did not establish the irrelevance or the dispensability of epidemiologic evidence in cancer or birth defects cases.

The Ferebee case observed that “a cause-effect relationship need not be clearly established by animal or epidemiological studies before a doctor can testify that in his opinion such a relationship exists.”[17] The bit about animal studies certainly cannot be part of the holding because the plaintiffs’ expert witnesses relied extensively on animal studies, along with human case reports, and human clinical studies of the metabolic fate and distribution of paraquat in both animals and humans.

The Ferebee case does properly stand for the proposition that there is a subset of all health effect cases for which epidemiologic evidence is unavailable and unnecessary for an expert witness to have for a valid conclusion of general and specific causation. The case illustrates how the ill effects of paraquat were observed shortly after exposure, and were sufficiently unique to not have a meaningful base- or background- rate. Adding the studies of absorption, metabolic fate and distribution, and mechanism of action, the plaintiff’s expert witnesses had an ample scientific, and legal, basis to assess causality. 

The Ferebee case is sometimes mistakenly thought of as a cancer case, which would have required epidemiologic evidence.[18] This mistake may well result from later courts citing Ferebee in cancer cases, for the proposition that epidemiologic evidence is unnecessary to support plaintiff’s causal claim between some exposure and some cancer. Perhaps the Illinois Supreme Court has provided the most egregious example of this sort of mistake. In Donaldson, a case involving plaintiff’s exposure to coal tar and his later development of neuroblastoma, the Court confusedly found Ferebee to be “of particular significance.”[19] The Donaldson court affirmed the trial court’s admission of plaintiffs’ expert witness testimony about “a causal link causal link despite the lack of a statistical number of others with neuroblastoma and a history of coal tar exposure.”[20] The court rambled on about how the plaintiffs were not required to prove general or specific causation “with 100% certainty that neuroblastoma.” This assertion was a common strawman argument that channels a misreading of Ferebee. The defense in Donaldson did not argue that 100% certainty was required, and such a level of posterior probability has never been required in law or in science.

The Ferebee case also did not establish that statistical significance was not required in epidemiologic studies for expert witnesses to be able reasonably to rely upon such studies. Because epidemiologic evidence was not at issue, there was no holding about epidemiologic studies or statistical significance as a criterion of the validity of such studies.

e. Ferebee did not establish that a clinician can opine about causation without sufficient facts and data.

One of plaintiff’s expert witnesses in Ferebee was Dr. Crystal, who was both a physician and a research scientist. His opinion as an expert witness was hardly without supporting facts and data, and the facts and data were of the exact kind that led to the scientific acceptance of the causal connection between some paraquat exposures and lung fibrosis. Crystal’s opinion was certainly not proffered without any evidentiary basis, as some have suggested.[21] Nor was Ferebee a case in which expert witnesses opined without facts and data to support unprecedented opinions on general and specific causation.[22]

This overwrought, over-extended interpretation of Ferebee as permitting causation opinions based upon only clinical observations of the patient appeared in the first edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, but disappeared in all subsequent editions. In the chapter by evidence law professor Margaret Berger, the Manual reported that Ferebee was frequently cited for a “holding that causation can be established by the testimony of treating physicians.”[23] Berger’s observation about frequent citation is correct, but the observation does nothing to validate the opinion cited. Berger offered no comments or analysis in critique of the frequent miscitation of Ferebee, leaving the reader to believe that citing Ferebee for the sufficiency of treating physician opinion without data was somehow appropriate. The citations to which Berger referred were erroneous in 1994, and they remain erroneous today.


[1] Matrixx Iniatives, Inc. v. Siracusano, 563 U.S. 27, 131 S.Ct. 1309, 1320 (2011).

[2] Brief for the United States as Amicus Curiae, in Matrixx Iniatives, Inc. v. Siracusano, No. 09-1156, 2010 WL 4624148, at *15 (Nov. 2010).

[3] See, e.g., Benkwith v. Matrixx Initiatives, Inc., 467 F. Supp. 2d 1316, 1326, 1330, 1332 (M.D. Ala. 2006) (granting defendant’s motion to exclude testimony of an expert in the field of epidemiology regarding Zicam nasal spray’s causing plaintiff’s anosmia, because the opinions had not been tested and a rate of error could not be provided).

[4] Sheldon L. Wagner, CLINICAL TOXICOLOGY OF AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 198, 199-200 (1983).

[5] Id. at 200 (citing “[s]tudies by Staiff and co-workers (1975)” on occupationally exposed persons).

[6] Id. at 201. See also A. J. Gardiner, Pulmonary oedema in paraquat poisoning, 27 THORAX 132 (1972).

[7] WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH CRITERIA 39: PARAQUAT AND DIQUAT at § 1.1.5. Effects on man (1984).

[8] See K. Tungsanga, S. Chusilp, S. Iarasena & V. Sitprija, Paraquat poisoning: evidence of systemic toxicity after dermal exposure, 59 POSTGRAD. MED. J. 338, 338 (1983).

[9] Cf. Zuchowicz v. United States, 140 F.3d 381 (2nd Cir. 1998) (analyzing causation in the context of defendants clear negligence that resulted in undisputed overexposure to prescription medication Danocrine). Unlike Zuchowicz, however, the Ferebee case did provide a strong evidentiary base for causation.

[10] See Kenneth J. Chesebro, Taking Daubert’s “Focus” Seriously: The Methodology/Conclusion Distinction, 15 CARDOZO L. REV. 1745, 1747, 1753 (1994) (misciting Ferebee as a Rule 702 case).

[11] See Alani Golanski, Judicial Scrutiny of Expert Testimony in Environmental Tort Litigation, 9 PACE ENVT’L L. REV. 399, 406-07 (1992) (misrepresenting Ferebee as a case under Rule 703; “this evidentiary issue was resolved through examination of the facts or data underlying the proffered expert opinion only to the extent necessary to make a Rule 703 determination on whether they are of the type reasonably relied upon by experts in the field.”). See also Michael C. McCarthy, “Helpful” or “Reasonably Reliable”? Analyzing the Expert Witness’s Methodology Under Federal Rules of Evidence 702 and 703, 77 CORNELL L. REV. 350, 373 (1992) (discussing Ferebee as a Rule 702 and 703 decision).

[12] Richardson v. Richardson-Merrell, Inc., 857 F.2d 823, 831-832 (D.C. Cir. 1988).

[13] Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1536.

[14] Id.

[15] Louis Lasagna & Sheila R. Shulman, Bendectin and the Language of Causation, chap. 5, at 111, in Kenneth R. Foster, David E. Bernstein & Peter W. Huber, eds., PHANTOM RISK: SCIENTIFIC INFERENCE AND THE LAW (1993)

[16] See Michael C. McCarthy, “Helpful” or “Reasonably Reliable”? Analyzing the Expert Witness’s Methodology Under Federal Rules of Evidence 702 and 703, 77 CORNELL L. REV. 350, 373 (1992) (“Essentially, the Ferebee decision distinguished between the level of certainty required by a scientific discipline-and the level of certainty required by a court in drawing conclusions regarding causation”: and “Ferebee stands for the proposition that courts, in determining whether a given substance more likely than not caused a plaintiff’s injury, cannot always wait for the sciences.”).

[17] Ferebee, 736 F.2d 1529, 1535 (D.C. Cir. 1984).

[18] David E. Bernstein, The Misbegotten Judicial Resistance to the Daubert Revolution, 89 NOTRE DAME L. REV. 27, 36 (2013); David E. Bernstein, Expert Witnesses, Adversarial Bias, and the (Partial) Failure of the Daubert Revolution, 93 IOWA L. REV. 451, 465 (2008) (“Ferebee involved a claim that exposure to an herbicide caused an individuals’ cancer.”).

[19] Donaldson v. Central Illinois Public Service Co., 313 Ill. App.3d 1061, 730 N.E.2d 68, 79 (2000).

[20] Id.

[21] Lee Loevinger, Evidentiary Framework Margaret A. Berger Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, 36 JURIMETRICS J. 149, 153 & n.21 (1996) (discussing the before (Daubert) times when “mere qualification and the facial relevance of an opinion might suffice to let an expert testify in some jurisdictions.”).

[22] See Kenneth J. Chesebro, Taking Daubert’s “Focus: Seriously: The Methodology/Conclusion Distinction, 15 CARDOZO L. REV. 1745, 1747 & n.20 (1994) (incorrectly arguing that Ferebee involved an expert witness offered an “unprecedented expert factual conclusion which no published literature supported.”

[23] See Margaret A. Berger, Evidentiary Framework, 39, 81 & n.164, in FEDERAL JUDICIAL CENTER, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE (1st ed. 1994).

The Recrudescence of Ferebee – Part One

June 29th, 2026

The infamous Ferebee decision is certainly a contender to be a Dred Scott decision involving scientific evidence,[1] by declaring that science has no validity issues that the law is bound to respect.[2] The decision is often cited for its dictum, written with impressive rhetorical flourish, about how courts should not interfere with expert witness opinion testimony. The dictum, when written in 1984, was contrary to the law of Federal Rule of Evidence 702, and was relegated in 1993 to the trash bin of jurisprudential history by the Supreme Court’s 1993 decision in Daubert.[3]

Since 1993, scofflaw judges continued to cite Ferebee’s discredited dictum, without looking at the specific facts of the case. Indeed, even after Rule 702 was amended to clarify its meaning, courts have cited Ferebee as precedential for a let-it-all-in approach to expert witness testimony. As recently as February 2026, the Chief Judge of the Federal Circuit, of the United States Court of Appeals, cited Ferebee in derogation of Federal Rule of Evidence 702.[4] This recrudenscence of Ferebee warrants revisiting the case, what was actually decided, and whether it has any continuing jurisprudential relevance.

The Ferebee case was a personal injury case against the manufacturer of paraquat, a herbicide, for damages for severe pulmonary fibrosis. Interestingly, the case is sometimes erroneously cited as a cancer causation case, which may explain why some commentators criticize its dismissal of epidemiology and statistical significance.

Critics of Ferebee, as well as its acolytes, rarely describe the factual context of the case. The facts of a case are always germane to its holding, and Ferebee cannot be cited appropriately without a sane appreciation of its facts.

  1. Ferebee is a government negligence case.

The plaintiff worked for the federal government when he was exposed to paraquat. Richard Ferebee began working for the Department of Agriculture’s Beltsville Agricultural Research Center (BARC), in Beltsville, Maryland. He started spraying paraquat in the summer of 1977, and used the herbicide regularly through the time he was diagnosed with pulmonary fibrosis, in November 1979.[5] Mr. Ferebee sued Chevron Chemical Company, the supplier of the paraquat, for failing to warn. The important failure to warn, however, was committed by the federal governmental, which had actual knowledge of the hazard, and which owned the BARC facility, employed Ferebee, controlled and supervised his use of paraquat, and failed to comply with Chevron’s instructions. The federal government itself further regulated the sale and use of paraquat extensively, first by the Department of Agriculture, and later by the Environmental Protection Agency. [6]

  1. The exposure.

Ferebee filed his lawsuit in 1981; he died in 1982. His case was tried twice. In the first trial, the jury deadlocked. In the second trial, the jury returned a verdict in favor of his estate, and for his family, for $60,000. In his deposition testimony, Ferebee described how he sprayed paraquat, in the summer of 1977. The chemical was diluted for use, per Chevron’s instructions. There was no evidence that Ferebee ever had direct contact with undiluted paraquat, or that the paraquat he was exposed to was not diluted according to the proportions recommended on Chevron’s label.[7]

Crediting Ferebee’s testimony, the federal government was at best grossly negligent; at worst, the government was an intentional tortfeasor. In flagrant disregard of Chevron’s written instructions (as required by federal regulation), Ferebee frequently had the chemical on his ungloved hands.[8] Ferebee further described an occasion when he was drenched with paraquat as he walked behind a tractor that was spraying the chemical, and another incident when he used a defective sprayer that leaked paraquat “all over his pants.”[9]

On the occasions of Ferebee’s being exposed to paraquat without appropriate protective gear, the federal government deviated from its employer common law, statutory, and regulatory duties. Ferebee did not wash when he was dermally exposed to paraquat, and he went home contaminated, where he fell asleep, tired and dizzy, without showering.[10]  The exposure that Ferebee described would not have occurred had his federal employer followed the instructions on the label that the government itself mandated. In 1978, the federal Occupational Health & Safety Administration published Guidelines on the need for protective clothing, respirators, immediate washing of contaminated skin. Ferebee’s federal governmental employer recklessly disregarded the guidelines it mandated that Chevron provide.

  1. The warnings.

Paraquat could be sold in the United States only when labeled in accordance with EPA regulations, promulgated pursuant to the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA).[11] The statute bars EPA from allowing sale of regulated herbicides, such as paraquat, unless the chemicals, as labeled, will not cause “unreasonable adverse effects on the environment.”[12] Such effects are in turn defined as any unreasonable risk to man or the environment, taking into account the economic, social, and environmental costs and benefits of the use of [the] pesticide.[13] FIFRA further requires the EPA to require labeling that is “adequate to protect health and the environment” and that is “likely to be read and understood.”[14]

In the Ferebee case, both the district and the circuit courts failed to provide the complete warning label and the material data safety sheets that Chevron supplied to the federal government employer, as required by the federal government. There are “snippets” of the warning communications in the published opinions, which make clear that the government was largely if not entirely to blame for failing to comply with the directions required under FIFRA. For instance, the district court, in a footnote, acknowledged:

“For example, the label advised the user spraying paraquat to wear waterproof clothing and goggles, to avoid working in spray mist, and to wash splashes on the skin or eyes immediately with water.”[15]

The Court of Appeals Ferebee opinion described the label,[16] as stating a warning in large bold letters:

DANGER

CAN KILL IF SWALLOWED

HARMFUL TO THE EYES AND SKIN

The label also informed users to wash any exposed areas immediately, and to remove contaminated clothing.[17]

  1. The Stipulation.

Essential to understanding the holding in Ferebee are the facts of the case, including the parties’ stipulation:

“that Mr. Ferebee’s only significant exposure to paraquat was on his intact skin; i.e., there was no evidence that Mr. Ferebee swallowed or inhaled paraquat, or that he spilled or sprayed it on an area of his skin upon which he had any apparent cuts or scrapes. The jury was not, of course, precluded from concluding that a person engaged in Mr. Ferebee’s line of work could have had some, or even many, minor cuts or abrasions not readily discernible to the naked eye or likely to be remembered some time later.”[18]

Why did the plaintiffs try to present their case solely as a dermal exposure cases? As we will see, this stratagem made their medical causation case a little more difficult, but it avoided defenses of serious misuse and lack of proximate cause. Ferebee had been instructed by his co-workers and supervisors that paraquat was extremely dangerous if swallowed or inhaled. The warning label was unequivocal in detailing the dangers and the need to avoid ingestion. (Without the full label, it is difficult to evaluate how well the label warned against inhalation, but the 1978 OSHA guidelines address the use of a proper respirator for situations in which paraquat may be inhaled.) On the other hand, the label had a weakness, which could be exploited, as long as the preemption defense could be held at bay: the label urged protective clothing, goggles, and immediate washing of contaminated skin, but it failed to describe the consequence of dermal exposure other than irritation. Ferebee could thus try to avoid his own culpable conduct, as well as a sophisticated intermediary defense, by claiming that his exposure was only dermal.

Why did Chevron agree to the stipulation? Ferebee surely had some inhalational exposure when he walking behind applicators and when he was drenched in paraquat. The Chevron warning label, per government-employer regulations, did not specify respirator usage for ordinary work exposures of applicators (as opposed to workers who handled undiluted paraquat, or who worked in confined spaces). The defendant probably felt sanguine about its preemption defense, and thus also about the adequacy of its warnings overall. The stipulation limited the plaintiff’s medical causation case to a route of exposure that put it into an arguable “first instance” case report. Chevron stood to gain a claim of “lack of notice,” and thus lack of actual or constructive knowledge of the risk of lung disease from dilute dermal exposure. The clinical presentation itself differed from many of the cases of known paraquat poisoning, and Chevron probably believed that it could deal with the medical causation claim better if exposure was limited to transdermal absorption on unbroken skin.

  1. Medical causation

Chevron stridently argued that there had been no previous documented cases of pulmonary fibrosis in workers exposed to diluted paraquat on unbroken skin. The manufacturer’s argument was clever by halves.  The following facts were uncontroverted as known at the time of Chevron’s sale of the product:

  • Paraquat causes pulmonary fibrosis in humans.
  • The evidence that established paraquat as a cause of pulmonary fibrosis was largely case series of acute onset of pulmonary fibrosis after ingestion.
  • Paraquat induces pulmonary fibrosis relatively rapidly.
  • Paraquat can be absorbed through the skin.
  • The parties agreed that any type of exposure – ingestion, inhalation, or dermal absorption – could cause lung damage.[19]
  • Once paraquat is ingested, inhaled, or absorbed, it can travel to the lungs.
  • Lung fibrosis caused by dermal absorption of paraquat had been described previously only with skin lesions before or after the injury.[20]
  • The lungs are the target organ for paraquat, regardless of route of administration.
  • There are numerous causes of pulmonary fibrosis (such as asbestosis, scleroderma, rheumatoid arthritis, etc.).
  • The variants of pulmonary fibrosis do not all look alike clinically or pathologically, present alike, or progress alike.
  • Ferebee had no known other disease or exposure that could account for his pulmonary fibrosis.
  • There are cases of pulmonary fibrosis with no identifiable cause, known as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).
  • IPF is relatively rare; it too has a rapid onset and progression, although arguably not as fast as the cases described after exposure to undiluted paraquat.
  • Ferebee’s medical history was largely unhelpful in explaining his clinical course.
  • Ferebee had some shortness of breath before starting to use paraquat.[21]
  • Ferebee used or was exposed to paraquat occasionally over three years before he was diagnosed with pulmonary fibrosis.

These stipulated facts are rarely acknowledged in the discussion of the Ferebee case. The legal implications of these facts are far reaching. General causation in a sense was not contested. Paraquat causes pulmonary fibrosis. The issue was whether diluted paraquat through dermal exposure over three years causes pulmonary fibrosis, and whether this exposure caused Ferebee’s pulmonary fibrosis. Chevron stridently asserted that the “scientific method” required controlled experimental or observational (epidemiologic) studies. The problem with Chevron’s position was that general causation had already been established, and not by analytical epidemiologic studies. General causation between paraquat exposure of any kind and pulmonary fibrosis had been established by case reports, based upon close temporal proximity between exposure and pulmonary toxicity and fibrosis. Animal toxicology and mechanistic studies confirmed the toxicity observed in clinical studies.[22]

Because idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is rare, the appearance of this disease in a series of exposed workers soon after they were exposed to a specific toxic chemical really did not require the rigors of analytical epidemiology. The causal analysis between paraquat and lung fibrosis was more akin to the analysis that is used to attribute liver failure to herbal exposure than the epidemiologic approach to the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. At the time of Ferebee’s exposure and his litigation, there was no serious dispute that paraquat caused pulmonary fibrosis when inhaled or swallowed, or that paraquat was absorbed dermally, or that the lung was a target organ of paraquat exposure of any sort.

  1. The expert witnesses.

Ferebee was initially treated by Dr. Muhammed Yusuf, a pulmonary specialist, who diagnosed pulmonary fibrosis. Dr. Yusef referred Ferebee to the National Institutes of Health (NIH), where he came under the care of Dr. Ronald G. Crystal of the Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. (Dr. Crystal is now Chairman of Genetic Medicine at Weill-Cornell Medical College, where he continues to practice pulmonary medicine.)

In the litigation, Chevron called Dr. Carrington, who diagnosed Ferebee with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Dr. Carrington challenged the plaintiffs’ expert witnesses’ opinions for lacking reliance upon controlled observational or experimental studies.[23] Dr. Carrington, however, acknowledged that dermal cases are too rare for observational epidemiologic analysis, but emphasized that no animal studies of sufficient size had been done to support plaintiffs’ hypothesis. Chevron also called a Dr. Fisher, who presented a toxicokinetic (TK) analysis of Ferebee’s dermal absorption. Based upon his TK analysis, Dr. Fisher concluded that the maximal amount of paraquat absorbed by Ferebee was too small, based upon known cases and animal studies, to have caused paraquat toxicity with lung fibrosis.[24]

  1. Chevron’s challenge to plaintiffs’ expert witnesses’ causation opinion.

None of the defendant’s expert witnesses examined Ferebee. The courts thought this was relevant, but the judicial opinions never articulated what would have been observed on physical examination that was important to resolving the differential diagnosis of paraquat toxicity versus IPF. There was no dispute that Ferebee had rapidly progressing pulmonary fibrosis. The expert witnesses on both sides evaluated Ferebee’s clinical data, presentation, clinical course, and arrived at different diagnoses, either paraquat-induced lung fibrosis or IPF. The plaintiffs’ expert witnesses’ diagnosis involved a causal attribution to paraquat exposure; the defendant’s expert witness’s diagnosis of IPF ruled out any causal toxic exposure.

The Ferebee case was litigated under Maryland law because federal statutory law requires state law to control in a wrongful death action arising out of the neglect or wrongful act of another on a federal enclave.[25] The choice of law had implications both for procedural and substantive law. Chevron appears to have relied upon Maryland’s articulation of the Frye general acceptance doctrine, and the courts analyzed Chevron’s arguments as a Frye challenge.[26] Under the Erie doctrine, a federal court should have applied its own procedural law to the case at hand, including Rule 702 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.[27] The use of Maryland law to determine an evidentiary issue in federal court was error.

Chevron pressed its challenge in terms of Maryland’s version of Frye, and not under Federal Rule of Evidence 702. The oft-repeated infamous language used by both the district and the circuit courts was, therefore, not an interpretation of federal law. Rule 702 was never cited or discussed in either the trial or the appellate court’s opinion. This oddity has profound implications for how we evaluate the Ferebee decision, and how it can be cited. Before the Supreme Court decided the Daubert case, the epistemic implications of Rule 702 were largely ignored. Defendants sometimes attempted to press the Frye twilight-zone general acceptance test into a rule of decision that would reject an expert witness’s opinion testimony.[28] The Frye case was decided by a federal appellate court, but superseded by the enactment of Rule 702, in 1975. Ferebee was, of course, decided before the Supreme Court breathed life into Rule 702, but Rule 702 was nonetheless the law when the Ferebee case was litigated.

  1. The judicial resolution of  Chevron’s Frye challenge

The district court insightfully recognized that Chevron was demanding a level of evidence, which had never been required to establish paraquat’s generally accepted ability to cause pulmonary fibrosis. This recognition led to the district court’s rhetorical language:

“It is true that medical expert testimony must be grounded in proper scientific methodology, but the extremely stringent standard that defendant suggests is beyond reason. Product liability law, especially as it relates to relatively new products or those with a relatively rare yet significant danger, would be rendered next to meaningless if a plaintiff could prove he was injured by a product only after a ‘statistically significant’ number of other people were also injured. A civilized legal system does not require that much human sacrifice before it can intervene. The fact that this is the first case of this exact type – or at least the first of its exact type in which the involvement of paraquat was discovered by alert doctors – cannot be enough by itself to shield defendant from liability. Defendant’s experts were not able to fault Dr. Crystal for his basic diagnostic methodology; in fact, they used the same kinds of test results, consultations, and other tools that he did. What they disagreed with chiefly were his conclusions.”[29]

The important observation is that general causation had been established case series and reports of human exposure. There never was statistical evidence that had been evaluated for “significance,” to establish general causation for undiluted paraquat, and the trial court refused, under Maryland law, to require such evidence for general causation for diluted paraquat. In this context, we can see that the trial court’s suggestion that statistical significance was not required has little bearing upon cases in which general causation could only be established using epidemiologic evidence, with its attendant statistical inferences.

Of course, the matter only became worse when Chevron persisted in its argument and presented it to a panel of the D.C. Circuit. The litigants pulled a panel of what can be described as activist judges not known for their scientific acumen. Judge Mikva wrote the opinion for a panel that included Judge Wald, and Senior Judge Bazelon. The panel’s decision ratcheted up the district court’s rhetoric:

“Thus, a cause-effect relationship need not be clearly established by animal or epidemiological studies before a doctor can testify that, in his opinion, such a relationship exists. As long as the basic methodology employed to reach such a conclusion is sound, such as use of tissue samples, standard tests, and patient examination, product liability does not preclude recovery until a ‘statistically significant’ number of people have been injured or until science has had the time and resources to complete sophisticated laboratory studies of the chemical. In a courtroom, the test for allowing a plaintiff to recover is not scientific certainty, but legal sufficiency; if reasonable jurors could conclude from the expert testimony that paraquat more likely than not caused Ferebee’s injury, the fact that another jury might reach the opposite conclusion or that science would require more evidence before conclusively considering the causation question resolved is irrelevant. That Ferebee’s case may have been the first of its exact type, or that his doctors may have been the first alert enough to recognize such a case, does not mean that the testimony of those doctors, who are concededly well qualified in their fields, should not have been admitted.”[30]

Judge Mikva’s dichotomy between levels of certainty needed in science and in the law was false. On behalf of the plaintiff, Dr. Crystal had done much more than give a clinical diagnosis. His assessment of causality was informed by case series of exposure and lung fibrosis, along with physiological evidence of oral, inhalational, and dermal absorption and distribution to the lungs, with toxic effect soon after exposure.

The appellate court’s dismissive attitude towards statistically significant evidence is severely limited to the factual context of a causal analysis that had been made by scientists, to everyone’s satisfaction, for undiluted paraquat, without the need for epidemiologic, statistical evidence. Statistical significance was never really at issue. In this way, Ferebee resembles the untoward dictum on statistical significance from Matrixx Initiatives Inc. v. Siracusano,[31] where the Court held that causation was not at issue.

In Ferebee, causation was very much at issue, but it had been well established – and the subject of warnings – based upon clinical case reports of paraquat exposure and rapid development of lung fibrosis. Dermal absorption and systemic distribution with toxic effects in the lungs were well established, and not the stuff of epidemiologic proofs.

In both Ferebee and Matrixx Initiatives, statistical significance was never really at issue. In Ferebee, there was no statistical evidence needed or used to reach causal conclusions about paraquat’s ability to induce pulmonary fibrosis. In Matrixx Initiatives, allegations of statistical significance and causation were not necessary because the plaintiffs needed only to allege materiality of the facts suppressed by the company in order to plead a securities fraud case. The FDA could impose warnings or require a product recall on evidence that fell well short of establishing causality. Materiality thus could be established without causation, and neither causation nor statistical significance needed to be alleged.

As for Chevron’s Frye challenge, the district court rejected the implied call for a vote on the general acceptance of Dr. Crystal’s reasoning. Frye may require “vote counting” of some sort, but the process becomes irrelevant when virtually no one has registered to vote. Otherwise, both the defense and plaintiffs’ expert witnesses were indeed using the same technique of arguing by analogy to accepted cases of paraquat poisoning or IPF. Dr. Crystal opined that Ferebee’s case was “similar” to three other cases he had identified. Dr. Carrington argued that Ferebee’s case was more like IPF cases, although IPF cases themselves have some clinical heterogeneity as well. Most reported paraquat cases described onset of toxicity to death as a very rapid process. Ferebee did not present with significant symptoms for three years after his first exposure, and then he survived for another two plus years. Ferebee did not report skin lesions, which had been reported in previous cases of dermal exposure leading up to pulmonary fibrosis. On the other hand, there was no precise exposure assessment for Ferebee’s absorption of paraquat. The case presented, on the diagnostic level, with the implied causality, a difficult call, but it is easy to understand the courts’ impatience with the defendant’s insistence upon more stringent criteria and evidence than was used to establish the causal connection with undiluted paraquat. The ability of paraquat to cause pulmonary fibrosis had been well established based upon case reports, including case reports of dermal exposure to open sores, with documented systemic distribution with specific toxicity to the lung, regardless of the route of administration.

  1. Expert witness qualifications.

Chevron never challenged Dr. Yusuf’s or Dr. Crystal’s qualifications, both of whom were highly accomplished and respected clinicians and scientists. Neither was a “hired gun.” The oft-quoted comments about expert witness qualifications were made in the context of describing the appellate court’s standard of review, and the court’s role in not assessing credibility or weighing the evidence:

“These admonitions apply with special force in the context of the present action, in which an admittedly dangerous chemical is alleged through long-term exposure to have caused disease. Judges, both trial and appellate, have no special competence to resolve the complex and refractory causal issues raised by the attempt to link low-level exposure to toxic chemicals with human disease. On questions such as these, which stand at the frontier of current medical and epidemiological inquiry, if experts are willing to testify that such a link exists, it is for the jury to decide whether to credit such testimony.”[32]

Remarkably, this language has been mistakenly invoked as a standard for trial courts to use in determining the admissibility of expert witness opinion testimony. It is no such thing. Some other observations are in order. Although Ferebee worked with diluted paraquat, his exposures were hardly low level. He described himself as drenched in the herbicide, without protective gear, and without his governmental supervisors ever directing him to shower and change clothing.

  1. Preemption and Warnings Causation.

Ultimately, Chevron’s preemption defense was rejected by both the district and the circuit court. The defense’s claim of FIFRA preemption might have gone very differently today, after the Supreme Court’s decisive application of preemption to FIFRA labeling of glyphosate.[33]

Even more important in evaluating liability is the emphasis that both the district and the appellate courts gave to the important role of the employer in the case. The evidence showed that there was indeed a warning label that Ferebee had never read. The plaintiff’s case was thus in jeopardy of failing to show proximate causation between an allegedly inadequate warning and harm. The courts, however, emphasized the role that the employer, through its supervisors and responsible co-workers, play in the complex organizational situation of a modern workplace:

“Mr. Ferebee’s situation was quite different, however. He did not purchase paraquat for his personal use; rather, it was provided to him by his employer for use on the job. The evidence showed that his principal source of information about paraquat was the oral instructions of his supervisors and co-workers, not the written label. He learned from them how to mix the product and how to spray it. It was also from this source that he learned of the danger of getting the product in his mouth: one of his co-workers warned him that if he accidently swallowed paraquat, it would ‘get in his blood’ and poison him. This is a common pattern of instruction and use of occupational materials in the workplace. Learning by doing and learning by oral instruction are tried and true methods of educating manual workers in their jobs. Therefore, although it is crucial to plaintiff’s case that someone would have read the label, it was not necessary for Mr. Ferebee to have done so. And it is obvious that one or more employees at BARC did read the label, since information did reach Mr. Ferebee about the proportions for diluting the product and about the dangers about which the label did warn. It was appropriate for the jury to infer that a warning about the danger of fatal lung disease from dermal exposure would also have been communicated to Mr. Ferebee. See Restatement (Second) of Torts § 388 comment n (seller normally entitled to assume that adequate warning will be passed on by purchaser to ultimate user); cf. Chambers v. G.D. Searle & Co., 441 F.Supp. at 381 (in product liability case involving prescription drug, relevant warning is the one given to doctor, not patient).”[34]

There is significant irony in that the Ferebee case has been the subject of serious criticism from defense counsel, and yet it embraced Section 388, comment n, as well as applied the learned or sophisticated intermediary principles to a case not involving prescription drugs. The appellate court waxed enthusiastic about the principles of Section 388, and went so far as to cite the late Victor Schwartz in support:

“We live in an organizational society in which traditional common-law limitations on an actor’s duty must give way to the realities of society. *** In this case, Mr. Ferebee did not purchase the paraquat for his personal use, and there was substantial evidence that workplace communication about the dangers associated with various chemicals usually took the form of oral instructions from supervisors to workers, the latter of whom then retransmitted the information to co-workers. This, rather than individual reading of product warnings, is a typical method by which information is disseminated in the modern workplace. See Schwartz & Driver, “Warnings in the Workplace: The Need for a Synthesis of Law and Communication Theory,” 52 U. Cinn. L. Rev. 38, 66-83 (1983). The requirement that an improper warning proximately ‘cause’ the injury should be elaborated against this background. We believe Maryland would construe its tort law in this case to require only that someone in the workplace have read the label, not that Mr. Ferebee personally have read it. Because there is no dispute that one or more employees at BARC did read the label, we hold that the jury could properly have inferred that, had a warning about the danger of disease from dermal exposure been included on the label, that warning would have been communicated to Mr. Ferebee and that he would as a result have acted differently. Alternatively, the jury could have inferred that an adequate warning would have led Ferebee’s employers to undertake steps that would have protected him from paraquat poisoning-for example, provision of showers for use after spraying.”[35]

Judge Mikva’s prediction, of course, was accurate; Maryland tort law did, soon thereafter, embrace the sophisticated intermediary defense to exculpate the defendant in such remote supplier situations.[36] The principle invoked to excuse plaintiff from reading the warning label also works to exculpate the defendant when that warning label is otherwise adequate, or when the intermediary knows of the hazard in any event. Given that the employer was the federal government, including the scientists at EPA, OSHA, the National Institutes of Health, and the Public Health Service, as well as the plaintiff’s principal expert witness (Dr. Crystal), the employer had complete and superior knowledge to the seller about the known or knowable effects of diluted paraquat.[37]


[1]  Nathan Schachtman, Wells v. Ortho Pharmaceutical Corporation -A Dred Scott Case in Science Jurisprudence, ResearchGate (June 2026); DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30242.18880

[2] Ferebee v. Chevron Chem. Co., 552 F. Supp. 1297 (D.D.C. 1982), aff’d, 736 F.2d 529 (D.C. Cir.), cert. denied, 469 U.S. 1062 (1984).

[3] Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579 (1993).

[4] Willis Electric Co., Ltd. v. Polygroup Ltd., 166 F. 4th 1363, 1379, 1380-81 (Fed. Cir. 2026) (citing Ferebee, and declaring that the validity of assumptions underlying an expert witness’s methodology were fact questions for the jury, and not a a proper basis for excluding the challenged expert witness testimony). See also Barry v. DePuy Synthes Cos., 164 F.4th 896, 912 (Fed. Cir. 2026) (characterizing expert witness challenges to “purported flaws” in methodology as objections that “go to the weight the jury might accord to that evidence and not to its admissibility.”)

[5] Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1531-32.

[6] Id. at 1532.

[7] 552 F. Supp. at 1295 & n. 3.

[8] Ferebee, 552 F. Supp. at 1294-95

[9] Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1532.

[10] Id.

[11] 7 U.S.C. § 136, et seq.

[12] 7 U.S.C. § 136a(c)(5)(C).

[13] 7 U.S.C. § 136(bb).

[14] 7 U.S.C. § 136(q)(1)(E). See Ferebee 736 F.2d at 1539-40.

[15] 552. F. Supp. at 1304 n.40.

[16] Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1536.

[17] Id.

[18] 552. F. Supp. at 1295 & n. 3.

[19] Ferebee, 552. F. Supp. at 1300 & n.28.

[20] Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1538.

[21] Ferebee, 552. F. Supp. at 1295.

[22] See generally Leah Utyasheva, Prabath Amarasinghe & Michael Eddleston, Paraquat at 63 – the story of a controversial herbicide and its regulations: It is time  to put people and public health first when regulating paraquat, 25 BMC PUB. HEALTH 3089 (2025).

[23]  Ferebee, 552. F. Supp. at 1301.

[24] Id.

[25] 16 U.S.C. § 457; Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1533.

[26] Ferebee, 552 F. Supp. at 1301; 736 F.2d at 1535.

[27] Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 589 & n.6 (1993). See also Cavallo v. Star Enterprise, 100 F.3d 1150, 1157-58 (4th Cir. 1996); Amorgianos v. National Railroad Passenger Corp., 303 F.3d 256 (2d Cir. 2002); Legg v. Chopra, 286 F.3d 286, 289-92 (6th Cir. 2002). See Erie R.R. Co. v. Tompkins, 304 U.S. 64 (1938); Hanna v. Plumer, 380 U.S. 460, 470 (1965) (Erie does not displace the application of federal procedural rules in federal courts).

[28] Frye v. United States, 293 F. 1013, 1014 (D.C.Cir.1923).

[29] Ferebee, 552 F. Supp. at 1301.

[30] Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1535-36 (emphasis in original).

[31] 563 U.S. 27 (2011). See Nathan Schachtman & David Venderbush, Matrixx Unbounded:  High Court’s Ruling Needlessly Complicates Scientific Evidence Principles, 26(4) WASH. LEG. FDTN. LEG. BACKGROUNDER (2011).

[32] Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1534.

[33] Monsanto v. Durnell, ___ U.S. ___, Slip op. (June 25, 2026), available at https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1068_n7ip.pdf

[34] Ferebee, 552 F. Supp. at 1303-04 (internal citations omitted).

[35] Ferebee, 736 F.2d at 1539 (emphasis in original; internal citation omitted).

[36] See, e.g., Kennedy v. Mobay Corp., 84 Md. App. 397 (1990) (applying sophisticated user defense to bar claims against manufacturers of toluene diisocyanate), aff’d, 325 Md. 385 (1992); Higgins v. E.I. DuPont de Nemours, Inc., 671 F. Supp. 1055 (D. Md. 1987) (Maryland law; holding that manufacturer of paint was in better position than bulk supplier to communicate warnings to customers’ employees), aff’d, 863 F.2d 1162 (4th Cir. 1988).

[37] See Miller v. Diamond Shamrock Co., 275 F.3d 414, 422-23 (5th Cir. 2001) (“There can be no reasonable dispute that knowledge possessed by the United States Public Health Service, … [and] the Navy’s Bureau of Medicine and Surgery is the knowledge of the military.”).

BIAS EVERYWHERE

June 27th, 2026

For those of us who litigate health effects claims, either as pursuers or defenders, the pathology of science is often as important and interesting as pristine methodology. Identifying the pathological epistemology (patho-epistemology) of our adversaries’ claims, in the facts and data relied upon, and the inferences drawn at every step in reasoning to a conclusion, are critical to getting to the truth, as well as prevailing in litigation.

To its credit, the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence has addressed, since its first edition, some varieties of bias that threaten the validity of epidemiologic studies. The most recent edition has the most extensive discussion yet. The authors of the chapter on epidemiology provide a basic taxonomy of systematic biases into three categories: selection, information, and confounding bias, all of which can affect the internal validity of an epidemiologic study.[1] Importantly, the chapter authors advise that the inevitable limitations in studies “must be considered to interpret their results properly.”[2] The chapter authors seem, however, keen to give examples in which courts dismiss challenges to studies with actual biases and severe limitations, rather than exclude witnesses who rely upon seriously biased studies.

The chapter thus cites a district court’s pronouncement that “[w]here a positive association is observed, its validity is assessed by evaluating the role of possible alternative explanations, such as chance, bias, or confounding.”[3] The authors avoid acknowledging, however, that the quoted court found that the pursuers’ expert witnesses had failed to evaluate bias adequately. In a similar vein, the chapter authors downplay potent biases when the biases undermine the validity of studies relied upon by claimants. The chapter cites a notorious decision in the phenylpropanolamine litigation, and quotes from the MDL court’s decision that dismissed the defendant’s “ex post facto dissection” of a study, because all “scientific studies almost invariably contain flaws.”[4] The quoted language reveals that particular MDL court’s refusal to engage with the evidence of the seriousness of the specific flaws identified. All humans have flaws, but still we acknowledge some as saints and some as criminals. A lot more is required than shrugging off challenges because no study is perfect.

Another example of the epidemiology chapter’s apparent approval of toothless judicial review of biases in studies can be seen in citation to the RoundUp MDL. The presiding judge, Judge Chhabria, declared that “concerns about recall bias in these studies do not demand that a reliable expert opinion meaningfully discount the body of case-control studies when assessing causation.”[5] The basis for this curious judgment was the plaintiffs’ expert witnesses’ claim that concerns over recall bias were diminished when studies looked only at one particular outcome (Non-Hodgkins’ lymphoma (NHL)) as opposed to many different kinds of cancer. These claims were free of empirical support, and puzzling in that case-control studies typically involve only one outcome of interest.

In that same RoundUp litigation, an expert testified that because recall bias would be expected to affect reported exposures for people with any type of cancer, concerns about recall bias were diminished where “epidemiology studies on the whole observed associations only between” exposure to an herbicide and a particular type of cancer, rather than with “the other cancers about which participants were asked.” No empirical support was cited for this curious, counter-intuitive opinion. If the cancer for which the odds ratio was elevated was the subject of litigation and a good deal of sensational, misleading publicity involving RoundUp, then we might well expect cases – with NHL – to remember or even exaggerate exposure to RoundUp more than the controls who did not have NHL.

Other instances in the Reference Manual’s treatment of bias are equally skewed. The chapter authors point to the Selikoff asbestos insulator study of cancer mortality as an example of information bias that diminished identification of mesothelioma risk because of misdiagnosis of mesotheliomas as lung cancers.[6] Although this is indeed an example of information bias that arose because of the uncertainty in distinguishing mesothelioma from lung cancer at a time when the diagnostic criteria for mesothelioma were not well developed, the authors ignore how this bias inflated lung cancer mortality, and how it inflated colorectal cancer mortality as a result of misdiagnosed peritoneal mesotheliomas. If the chapter authors had looked at the structure of the Selikoff study, they would have seen that smoking was a covariate reported by post card survey of a population (insulators), who were very much aware of the litigation issues, who funded the study, and who were keen to reduce the role attributable to smoking in the study. The Manual authors missed an important opportunity to discuss bias created by conducting studies in a group of workers who were keen to support their union’s and their own litigation efforts.

The chapter acknowledges that identifying biases can be challenging for expert witnesses, and can require expertise in epidemiologic methodology and the outcomes under study.[7] Unfortunately, the chapter does not address the very low bar for qualifying expert witnesses, which results in courtroom presentation of testimony about epidemiologic evidence from witnesses with weak to non-existent expertise in epidemiology or the specific disease outcome at issue. Both plaintiffs’ and defense counsel have been known to recruit treating physicians as expert witnesses on general and specific causation, despite their lack of epidemiologic expertise, on the belief that juries will accord them greater credibility because of their “hands-on” experience with patients. Despite the Manual’s acknowledgment of the need for subject-matter expertise, the chapter on epidemiology has nothing to say about the ineffective standards for ensuring actual expertise.

The Reference Manual’s discussion of study bias has its strengths, and more than its fair share of weaknesses, but any exposition of ten or so pages would be inadequate to the task of preparing judges and lawyers to complete their task in specific cases.  The Manual could have been improved by including some discussion of the many resources available on the subject of systematic and other biases in epidemiology.

There are innumerable (figuratively speaking) journal articles on the many types of systematic biases.[8] There are also important book-length discussions of the full range of systematic and other biases that can afflict and invalidate epidemiologic studies. Michael B. Bracken, now professor emeritus at Yale University, has just published an important book, Bias! How Systemic Error Threatens Biomedical Research.[9] Bracken provides a helpful synopsis of his work:

“Scientists are alert to the play of chance in their research findings, but systemic error, which defines bias, is a much more insidious player. There are few formal methods for assessing bias, and researchers are often unaware of how bias is influencing their study results. Bias produces the worst kind of study outcome: The result appears precise and free of random error but, because of systemic error, it is wrong. Bias operates at every stage of research:

  • which hypotheses will be tested;
  • how study participants are selected;
  • the choice of comparison groups;statistical analysis, research synthesis, and meta-analysis;and the interpretation and dissemination of study results.

Bias is a root cause of inefficiencies and waste in biomedical research, and for well-documented failures in result reproducibility. This book describes cognitive biases that influence scientists and science teams, as well as bias inherent in how research is conducted. Selected types of research are examined: genetic, pharmacologic, pandemic, clinical trial, and animal studies. Historical and modem examples are provided throughout the book and suggestions offered for how scientists might immunize themselves against the systemic error that threatens their work.”

Bracken’s book is a crucial resource for lawyers who need to understand the varied biases that must be considered in the evaluation of any epidemiologic study. The book’s discussions of the origins, types, and effects of biases go far beyond the meager (and at times biased) discussion of bias in the Reference Manual’s chapter on epidemiology. Lawyers who litigate health effect cases who fail to consult Bracken’s work on bias are likely deviating from their own professional standard of care.

Bracken’s work on bias is not the first book-length treatment of the subject.  Professor Timothy Lash, along with co-authors, have published an important work, now in its second edition, on the quantification of biases.[10] In 2024, the International Agency for Research on Cancer has published a book on bias assessment in observational cancer epidemiologic studies.[11] The book, which grew out of a workshop funded in part by the National Cancer Institute, is available for download as a free PDF file from IARC’s website. Although not as comprehensive as it might be, the IARC’s textbook on bias does describe some techniques to avoid, control, and measure the role of bias in the results of epidemiologic studies. Unfortunately, IARC does not prescribe the same level of analysis for its working groups involved in classifying agents as cancer hazards.[12]

Another important book that belongs within easy reach of health-effect litigation lawyers is the award-winning book by statistician Herbert Weisberg, Bias and Causation: Models and Judgment for Valid Comparisons.[13] Weisberg drills down on bias as one the key problems in the assessment of causality. Judea Pearl called Weisberg’s work “a thoughtful and well written book, covering important issues of causal inference in every field of applied data analysis.”[14] Pearl fussed that while “the book shines in the motivational and conceptual levels,” he was not satisfied with it because of its lack of attention to mathematical models.  Lawyers, especially those who lack training in advanced mathematics, will find this lack a blessing.

Of course, all the major textbooks on epidemiology will treat systematic bias with greater care and intensity than the Reference Manual. Mark Elwood’s insightful text on evaluating epidemiological studies probably provides more practical assistance to the litigation bar than the general epidemiology textbooks.[15] The Manual’s treatment of systematic bias creates an impression that the authors would prefer judges not to look too carefully at the indicia of invalidity in the studies relied upon by expert witnesses.


[1] Steve C. Gold, Michael D. Green, Jonathan Chevrier, & Brenda Eskenazi, Reference Guide on Epidemiology 897, 928, in National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE (4th ed. 2025) [RMSE4th]

[2] Id. at 903, 929 n. 94.

[3] 929 n. 94, citing and quoting from Daniels-Feasel v. Forest Pharms., Inc., No. 17 CV 4188-LTS-JLC, 2021 WL 4037820, at *2 (S.D.N.Y. Sept. 3, 2021). The chapter ignores that the district court found, in a Rule 702 evaluation, that the plaintiffs’ expert witnesses had failed to consider these alternatives adequately. The chapter also failed to note that the Second Circuit had affirmed the district court’s exclusion of the plaintiffs’ expert witnesses. Daniels-Feasel v. Forest Pharms., Inc., 2023 U.S. App. LEXIS 19448, 2023 WL 4837521 (2d Cir. July 28, 2023) (per curiam).

[4] RMSE4th at 903 n. 12, citing In re Phenylpropanolamine (PPA) Prods. Liab. Litig., 289 F. Supp. 2d 1230, 1240 (W.D. Wash. 2003).

[5] RMSE4th at 948 & n. 145 citing and quoting In re Roundup Prods. Liab. Litig., 390 F. Supp. 3d 1102, 1121 (N.D. Cal. 2018).

[6] d. at 946 n.140 citing Irving John Selikoff, et al., Mortality Experience of Insulation Workers in the United States and Canada, 220 ANN. N.Y. ACAD. SCI. 91, 110–11 (1979);  David E. Lilienfeld & Paul D. Gunderson, The “Missing Cases” of Pleural Malignant Mesothelioma in Minnesota, 1979–81: Preliminary Report, 101 PUB. HEALTH REP. 395, 397–98 (1986).

[7] RMSE4th at 943.

[8] See, e.g., David L. Sackett, Bias in Analytic Research, 32 J. CHRON. DIS. 51 (1979).

[9] Michael B. Bracken, BIAS! HOW SYSTEMIC ERROR THREATENS BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH (2026)

[10] Matthew P. Fox, Richard F. MacLehose & Timothy L. Lash, APPLYING QUANTIATIVE BIAS ANALYSIS TO EPIDEMIOLOGIC DATA (2d ed. 2021).

[11] Amy Berrington de González, David B. Richardson & Mary K. Schubauer-Berigan, eds., STATISTICAL METHODS IN CANCER RESEARCH, vol. V: BIAS ASSESSMENT IN CASE-CONTROL AND COHORT STUDIES FOR HAZARD IDENTIFICATION, IARC Scientific Publication No. 171 (2024).

[12] See generally Schachtman, IARC’s Precautionary Science: How the WHO Cancer Research Agency Misinforms Regulation and Litigation, WLF Monograph (2016), https://www.wlf.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/WLF-Precautionary-Science-monograph.pdf

[13] Herbert I. Weisberg, BIAS AND CAUSATION: MODELS AND JUDGMENT FOR VALID COMPARISONS (2010).

[14] Judea Pearl, Review: Models and Judgment for Valid Comparisons, 68 BIOMETRICS 659, 660 (2012).

[15] Mark Elwood, APPRAISAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES AND CLINICAL TRIALS (2017). See also Raj S. Bhopal, ERROR, BIAS, AND CONFOUNDING IN EPIDEMIOLOGY (2016); Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM), Catalogue of Bias, https://catalogofbias.org/biases/.

IARC & the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence

May 12th, 2026

Given the outsized role that IARC can sometimes take in litigation and regulation, lawyers and judges should pay some attention to, and give some critical thought about, how the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence addresses IARC’s classifications and evaluations of putative carcinogens.

The Reference Manual is published by the Federal Judicial Center and the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine to remedy the gaps and defects in the knowledge base of judges who must conduct trials and gatekeep expert witness opinion testimony on scientific issues. The third edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence was published in 2011; a fourth edition was released in the still of the night on the last day of the last month of 2025. Given the imprimatur of its publishers, the Reference Manual can be influential. Whether its influence is deserved or warranted is very much a matter of debate.

Without any citation support or analysis, the third edition of the Reference Manual accorded IARC undeserved honorifics and accolades. Various chapters of the third edition referred to IARC as “well-respected and prestigious,” “well regarded,” and “reputable.”[1]

The late Professor Margaret Berger, in her opening chapter of the third edition, misleadingly characterized IARC’s review processes as “not review[ing] each scientific study individually for whether it reliably supports the causal claim being advocated or opposed.”[2] Berger’s chapter was published after her death, and it cited cases that were decided after her death. The error noted above cannot be fully attributed to her; as with the posthumous case references, other parts of her chapter may have been introduced gratuitously by an overzealous editor. The gist of the mistaken representation of IARC’s process, made without any reference to the Preamble, is, however, consistent with Professor Berger’s lifetime publications.

Berger’s peculiar, erroneous take on the IARC process appears to accord with her personal belief that courts should not look at the validity of individual studies. According to the Preamble, however, IARC’s working groups are very much supposed to review individual epidemiologic studies for whether they reliably report an association, or animal studies for whether they support a causal interpretation (for the animals in the study).[3]

The new, fourth edition of the Reference Manual[4] continues the tradition of giving IARC a higher regard than the evidence would warrant. The new edition’s chapter on toxicology, for instance, carries forward the characterization of IARC as “respected.”[5] Readers will have a difficult time of what to make of the chapter’s approbation, when the same toxicology chapter references IARC in connection with its discussion of risk assessments, even though IARC most decidedly does not conduct risk assessments.[6] Readers of the Manual may ask whether the authors of the Manual have any idea of what they are saying.

The toxicology chapter engages in some special pleading for animal evidence to remain within the scope of evidence for human health effects. In the context of cancer causation, this chapter points to IARC as a source for justifying the use of animal evidence, and even high-exposure, maximum-tolerated dose, rodent studies as evidence for human carcinogenicity.[7] Not surprisingly, the chapter glibly avoids addressing difficult questions about extrapolating from non-primate studies to conclusions of human carcinogenicity.

What is perhaps more unsettling is that the toxicology chapter epistemically trespasses upon the epidemiology chapter in order to settle a grievance of one of the toxicology chapter’s authors.[8] One of the toxicology chapter’s authors, Bernard Goldstein, fellow of the Collegium Ramazzini, was an expert witnesses for plaintiffs in a case that went up to the highest court in New York State, Parker v. Mobil Oil,[9] which affirmed the exclusion of Goldstein’s testimony. Footnote 37 in the toxicology chapter attempts to offer a defense of Goldstein’s litigation opinions in a way that hardly does justice to the decision of the New York Court of Appeals. More disturbing is that the chapter never discloses that Goldstein, one of the chapter’s authors, was a partisan expert witness in the Parker case. At the time Parker was decided, gasoline was an IARC 2B (“possible”) human carcinogen. Within a few years, in what may have been the result of advocacy groups, IARC reconsidered gasoline and bumped it up two categories to group 1, speaking through a working group that appeared to lack balance and credibility.[10]

Turning to the Manual’s epidemiology chapter,[11] we find again an uncritical and unscholarly description of IARC monographs as “well regarded,” and an assertion that courts “generally recognize” IARC monographs as “authoritative.”[12] The authors offer no support for the former claim. In support of their latter assertion, the chapter cites to a rather dubious appellate decision, which affirmed a trial court’s ruling that an expert witness was permitted to reference the IARC 2A classification of glyphosate in his testimony.[13] The case cited by the Manual never held that the IARC monograph at issue was “authoritative”; indeed, the court never used the word authoritative at all. The two law professor authors of the epidemiology chapter know, or should know, that “authoritative” is a term of art in the law of evidence. Federal Rule of Evidence 803(18), for instance, makes statements made in a so-called learned treatise admissible in evidence if “established as a reliable authority.” The glyphosate case cited by the Manual never suggested that there had been a determination that the glyphosate IARC monograph, or the IARC classification of glyphosate, was a reliable authority. There is a fair amount of learned opinion that IARC badly bungled its evaluation of glyphosate.

IARC did, in fact, controversially, classify glyphosate as 2A, or “probably carcinogenic” to humans.  “Probably,” as used and defined in the key IARC document, the Preamble,[14] has no quantitative meaning according to IARC.  A more accurate translation into common parlance would have us say that IARC classified glyphosate as “very possibly” carcinogenic to humans. The Manual’s chapter on epidemiology failed to cite the actual Preamble. Instead, the authors cited to a poster that fails to give the relevant definitions.[15] This abridgement distorted the presentation of IARC ideas, such as they are, and thwarted critical scrutiny of the IARC process.

The epidemiology chapter affirmatively misrepresents the work of IARC working groups and their classifications by describing IARC as convening working groups and asking them to reach “consensus” on carcinogenicity. In fact, the working group, and its subgroups, treat a bare majority as sufficient.[16] The Manual also describes IARC as employing a “weight-of-the-evidence” approach, a descriptor so subjective and vague as to be unfalsifiable.

There are many reasons that IARC monographs and classifications should not be well regarded. For a fuller discussion of those reasons, see the recent paper published by the Washington Legal Foundation, on IARC’s Precautionary Science: How the WHO Cancer Research Agency Misinforms Regulation and Litigation.[17]


[1] National Academies of Science, Engineering & Medicine and Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE at 20, 564 n.46, 646 (3d ed. 2011).

[2] Margaret A. Berger, The Admissibility of Expert Testimony, in REFERENCE MANUAL, id.

[3] IARC MONOGRAPHS ON THE IDENTIFICATION OF CARCINOGENIC HAZARDS TO HUMANS – PREAMBLE (2019) [cited herein as Preamble], https://perma.cc/LJE4-K7HH

[4] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE (4th ed. 2025) (cited as RMSE 4th ed.).

[5] David L. Eaton, Bernard D. Goldstein, & Mary Sue Henifin, Reference Guide on Toxicology, 1027, 1045, in RMSE 4th ed.

[6] Id. at 1036 (citing Hardeman v. Monsanto Co., 997 F.3d 941 (9th Cir. 2021) for its affirmance of a lower court’s allowing an expert opinion to rely upon and discuss at trial the IARC classification, not its risk assessment, of glyphosate as a “probable carcinogen”).

[7] Id. at 1044.

[8] Id. at 1044 n. 37.

[9] Parker v. Mobil Oil Corp., 7 N.Y.3d 434, 857 N.E.2d 1114 (2006).

[10] Craig DillardJohn Kalas, “IARC Classifies Gasoline As a Human Carcinogen – Litigation May Follow,” Nelson Mullins (April 15, 2025).

[11] Steve C. Gold, Michael D. Green, Jonathan Chevrier, & Brenda Eskenazi, Reference Guide on Epidemiology 897, in RMSE 4th ed.

[12] Id. at 919 n. 68.

[13] Hardeman v. Monsanto Co., 997 F.3d 941, 967 (9th Cir. 2021), cert. denied, 142 S. Ct. 2834 (2022).

[14] Preamble, https://perma.cc/LJE4-K7HH

[15] Reference Guide on Epidemiology, RMSE 4th ed. at 919 n. 68 (incorrectly citing the Preamble to a URL, https://perma.cc/XXY4-7DKF, which is a one page abridgement of the actual Preamble, devoid of definitions and qualifications.

[16] Reference Guide on Epidemiology, RMSE 4th ed. at 974.

[17] Schachtman, IARC’s Precautionary Science: How the WHO Cancer Research Agency Misinforms Regulation and Litigation, Washington Legal Foundation Monograph (May 2026), available at https://www.wlf.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/05-26Schachtman-Monograph.pdf

Reference Manual’s Chapter on Expert Witness Testimony Admissibility – Part 5

March 7th, 2026

By ignoring Milward’s expert witnesses’ omissions from, and abridgements of, WOE and IBE, the appellate court blinded itself to these witnesses’ distortions of scientific method. The need for judgment, which the Milward court was keen to honor, does not mean that there are not aberrant or deviant judgments, or deviations from the standard of scientific care that are disqualifying. The need for judgment must also allow for equipoise and uncertainty that stands in the way of an inculpatory or exonerative verdict. And then there is the business of questionable research practices that subvert causal judgment. The district court had followed and acknowledged the showing of questionable research practices that pervaded Martyn Smith’s for-litigation opinions. The cheerleaders for Milward seem eager to obscure these practices by their insistence that causation is, after all, only a judgment.

The Milward decision, in its embrace of some truly aberrant methodology and judgment, and some absence of methodology, made some of its own whoopers. Martyn Smith’s incompetent analyses of the epidemiologic evidence had been thoroughly debunked in the district court, but the circuit court glibly adopted Smith’s characterizations. The appellate court failed to understand and come to grips with Smith’s rejiggering of data, and his inconsistently redefining exposures and outcomes in epidemiologic studies to make up new, fanciful results that favored his WOE-ful opinion. The appellate court also failed to understand that scientific judgment is not some vague, amorphous, unstructured decision that turns on whatever looks to be “explanatory.” Even the International Agency for Research on Cancer, which issues hazard classifications that are distorted by non-scientific precautionary principle reasoning, insists that three streams of evidence (epidemiologic, toxicologic, mechanistic) be considered separately, in accordance with criteria, with attention to the validity of each study, and synthesized into a judgment of causality following a carefully structured analysis.[1]

The appellate court in Milward took the demonstration of Smith’s failure to calculate odds ratios correctly to be something that merely went to the weight, not the admissibility, on the theory that a jury, which does not have access to the Reference Manual or to the actual studies as published, could sort it all out. And yet, when the court improvidently set out a definition of what an odds ratio is, it bungled the definition beyond understanding:

“An odds ratio represents the difference in the incidence of a disease between a population that has been exposed to benzene and one that has not.”[2]

The court’s definition is not even wrong. The difference between incidence of a disease in an exposed group and a non-exposed group is the risk difference. It is not an odds ratio. Perhaps the court might have realized what most third graders know, that there is a difference between a ratio (division) and a difference (subtraction). And of course, the odds of exposure is not the same as the incidence of a disease. The relevant odds ratio represents the odds of exposure in cases with APML diagnoses divided by the odds of exposure in study subjects without APML. The odds ratio does involve measurements of incidence although in some cases the odds ratio will approximate a risk ratio, which does involve a ratio of incidences. This is not some hyper-technicality; it is a vivid display that Chief Judge Lynch, writing for a panel of three judges of the First Circuit, had no idea of what she was reviewing or writing.

Richter and Capra devote two pages to a discussion of the Milward case and its embrace of WOE and IBE. There is not, in this discussion, a single adjective of approval or of disapproval. The attention to this one intermediate appellate court opinion far exceeds any other case decided at a level below the Supreme Court, and an engaged reader must ask why the authors of the first chapter of the new Reference Manual wrote about this case at all, especially given the 2023 amendments to Rule 702, which would suggest that Milward was bad law when decided in 2011, and clearly and emphatically bad law in December 2025, when the new Manual was published.

The chapter provides one not-so-subtle clue of the authors’ intent. At the conclusion of their extended, uncritical, and incomplete exposition of Milward,[3] Richter and Capra refer the reader to a law review symposium,[4] “[f]or a detailed analysis of the Milward decision and the weight of the evidence approach to scientific reasoning.” Like Richter and Capra’s coverage of Milward, the cited symposium was hardly an objective analysis; rather, it was more like a drunken celebration at a family reunion.

There have been many law review articles that have discussed the Milward case, but Richter and Capra chose to cite to one particular symposium, which was sponsored by two corporations, the Center for Progressive Reform (CPR) and the Robert A. Habush Foundation. The Center for Progressive Reform (CPR) is a not-for-profit corporation. Its website describes the CPR as a “research and advocacy organization that works in the service of responsive government; climate justice, mitigation, and adaptation; and protecting against environmental harm.”[5] CPR describes one of its key activities as defending science from corporate interference. Presumably its own corporate activities and those of the lawsuit industry are acceptable, but those of corporate manufacturing industry are not. From reviewing CPR’s website, it is not clear that the CPR believes manufacturing corporations should even be allowed to defend against lawsuits. Milward’s retained expert witness Carl Cranor is a “member scholar” at CPR, which makes CPR’s sponsorship of the symposium rather incestuous.[6]

CPR is also apparently comfortable with one highly politicized “corporation,” namely the American Association for Justice (AAJ), which is the trade group for the American lawsuit industry.[7] The AAJ describes itself as a corporation, or a “collective,” that supports plaintiff trial lawyers as their “collective voice … on Capitol Hill and in courthouses across the nation … .” The Robert A. Habush Foundation is endowed by the AAJ, and serves its “educational” mission.  Through the Habush Foundation, the AAJ funds educational programs, “think tanks,” and writing projects designed to influence judges, law professors, lawyers, and the public, on issues of importance to the AAJ:  “the civil justice system and individual rights” for bigger, better, and more profitable litigation outcomes. The AAJ may be a “not-for-profit” corporation, but it represents the interests of one of the most powerful, wealthiest, interest groups in American society — the plaintiffs’ bar.

The Milward symposium agenda and papers from its participants were published at the website for the Wake Forest Journal of Law and Public Policy, but now are marked as “currently private. If you would like to request access, we’ll send your username to the site owner for approval.”

The symposium cited by Richter and Capra for “analysis,” was very much a family affair. The choice of venue, at the Wake Forest Law School, was connected to the web of interests involved. CPR board member, Sid Shapiro, is a law professor at Wake Forest. Shapiro presented at the symposium, along with the Wake Forest professor Michael Green. Cranor, Shapiro’s CPR colleague, and party expert witness for plaintiff, presented.[8] There was only one practicing lawyer who presented at the symposium, Steven Baughman Jensen, who was a past chair of the AAJ’s Section on Toxic, Environmental, and Pharmaceutical Torts. Jensen represented Milward, and hired Cranor as one of the plaintiff’s expert witnesses. Attorney Jensen’s contribution to the symposium has been published along with Cranor’s as well, in the proceedings of the Milward symposium were published volume 3, no. 1 of the Wake Forest Journal of Law and Public Policy,[9] which is now also marked private. Jensen also published an abbreviated paean to Milward in in the AAJ’s trade journal.[10] No defense counsel or defense expert witness participated at the symposium, referenced by Richter and Capra.

Consistent with the financial, advocacy, and political interests of the symposium sponsors, the articles are almost all partisan high-fives for the Milward decision. Writing for the Federal Judicial Center and the National Academies, the authors of a chapter on the law of expert witnesses, a legal issue, for the Reference Manual, should have been aware of the partisan nature of the CPR-AAJ sponsored symposium. They should have flagged the advocacy nature of the symposium, and identified the funding sources and the conflicts created. Furthermore, Richter and Capra should have cited papers that criticized the Milward case, from various perspectives, including its failure to adhere to the law of Rule 702.[11] Their failure to do so is a significant failure of this chapter.


[1] IARC MONOGRAPHS ON THE IDENTIFICATION OF CARCINOGENIC HAZARDS TO HUMANS – PREAMBLE (2019).

[2] Milward, 639 F.3d at 23.

[3] Richter & Capra at 33n.96 (“For a detailed analysis of the Milward decision and the weight of the evidence approach to scientific reasoning…”).

[4] Symposium: Toxic Tort Litigation: After Milward v. Acuity Products, 3 WAKE FOREST JOURNAL OF LAW & POLICY 1 (2013).

[5] The Center for Progressive Reform, at https://progressivereform.org/, last visited on Feb. 24, 2026

[6] Carl Cranor Biography, Center for Progressive Reform, Member Scholars, at https://progressivereform.org/member-scholars/

[7] The AAJ was previously known by the more revealing name, Association of Trial Lawyers of America (ATLA®). 

[8] Carl F. Cranor, Milward v. Acuity Specialty Products: Advances in General Causation Testimony in Toxic Tort Litigation, 3 WAKE FOREST JOURNAL OF LAW & POLICY 105 (2013).

[9] Steve Baughman Jensen, Sometimes Doubt Doesn’t Sell: A Plaintiffs’ Lawyer’s Perspective on Milward v. Acuity Products, 3 WAKE FOREST JOURNAL OF LAW & POLICY 177 (2013).

[10] Steve Baughman Jensen, Reframing the Daubert Issue in Toxic Tort Cases, 49 TRIAL 46 (Feb. 2013).

[11] See Eric Lasker, Manning the Daubert Gate: A Defense Primer in Response to Milward v. Acuity Specialty Products, 79 DEF. COUNS. J. 128, 128 (2012);

David E. Bernstein, The Misbegotten Judicial Resistance to the Daubert Revolution, 89 NOTRE DAME L. REV. 27, 29, 53-58 (2013); David E. Bernstein & Eric G. Lasker, Defending Daubert: It’s Time to Amend Federal Rule of Evidence 702, 57 WM. & MARY L. REV. 1, 33 (2015); Richard Collin Mangrum, Comment on the Proposed Revision of Federal Rule 702: “Clarifying” the Court’s Gatekeeping Responsibility over Expert Testimony, 56 CREIGHTON LAW REVIEW 97, 106 & n.45 (2022); Thomas D. Schroeder, Toward a More Apparent Approach to Considering the Admission of Expert Testimony, 95 NOTRE DAME L. REV. 2039, 2045 (2020); Lawrence A. Kogan, Weight of the Evidence: A Lower Expert Evidence Standard Metastasizes in Federal Court, Washington Legal Foundation Critical Legal Issues WORKING PAPER Series no. 215 (Mar. 2020); Note, Judicial Conference Amends Rule 702. — Federal Rule of Evidence 702, 138 HARV. L. REV. 899, 903 (2025); Nathan A. Schachtman, Desultory Thoughts on Milward v. Acuity Specialty Products, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.5011.5285 (Oct. 2015), available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282816421_Desultory_Thoughts_on_Milward_v_Acuity_Specialty_Products .

Reference Manual’s Chapter on Expert Witness Testimony Admissibility – Part 4

March 5th, 2026

In the district court, Judge George O’Toole conducted a pre-trial hearing over four days, and heard testimony from Smith and Cranor, as well as from defense expert witnesses. Judge O’Toole’s published opinion carefully and accurately stated the facts, the applicable law, and presented a well-reasoned judgment as to why Smith’s opinion was not admissible under Rule 702. Without admissible opinions on general causation to support Milward’s case, Judge O’Toole granted summary judgment to the defendants.

Milward appealed the judgment. A panel of judges in the First Circuit heard argument, and reversed in an opinion that is riddled with serious errors.[1] In reviewing the district court’s application of Rule 702, the panel, in an opinion written by Chief Judge Lynch, credulously accepted most of Smith’s and Cranor’s arguments that an ill-defined WOE approach is acceptable method of guiding scientific judgment. Cranor equated WOE, as used by Smith, to the approach that Sir Austin Bradford Hill described, in 1965, for identifying causal associations from epidemiologic data.[2] Chief Judge Lynch’s opinion tracked accurately Cranor’s and Milward’s lawyers’ misrepresentations about Sir Austin’s paper:

“Dr. Smith’s opinion was based on a ‘‘weight of the evidence’’ methodology in which he followed the guidelines articulated by world-renowned epidemiologist Sir Arthur [sic] Bradford Hill in his seminal methodological article on inferences of causality. See Arthur [sic] Bradford Hill, The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?, 58 Proc. Royal Soc’y Med. 295 (1965).

Hill’s article explains that one should not conclude that an observed association between a disease and a feature of the environment (e.g., a chemical) is causal without first considering a variety of ‘viewpoints’ on the issue.”[3]

The quoted language from the First Circuit opinion, which twice refers to “Arthur Bradford Hill,” rather than Austin Bradford Hill, may suggest that neither Chief Judge Lynch nor his judicial colleagues and their law clerks read the classic paper. An even stronger indicator that the appellate court did not actually read this paper is evidenced in the court’s equating WOE to Bradford Hill viewpoints, without consideration of the necessary predicate for those nine viewpoints. In his short paper, Sir Austin clearly spelled out that there was a foundation needed before parsing the nine viewpoints:

“Disregarding then any such problem in semantics we have this situation. Our observations reveal an association between two variables, perfectly clear-cut and beyond what we would care to attribute to the play of chance. What aspects of that association should we especially consider before deciding that the most likely interpretation of it is causation?”[4]

Whatever Sir Arthur had to say about the matter, Sir Austin defined the starting point of causal analysis as an association free of invalidating bias and random error. The Milward decision ignored this all important predicate for assessing the various considerations that might allow for a valid association to be considered a causal association.[5] The resulting abridgement was a failure of scientific due process that distorted the Bradford Hill paper.

The First Circuit amplified its error when it asserted that from the nine considerations “no one type of evidence must be present before causality may be inferred.”[6] Although Sir Austin said something similar, one of the considerations he noted was “temporality,” in which the putative cause must come before the effect.  Most scientists would consider this consideration to be essential, unless they were observing events that were moving faster than the speed of light. The other eight considerations are more dependent upon context of the exposures and outcomes of interest, but surely strength and consistency of the clear-cut association across multiple studies is an extremely important consideration.

The First Circuit proceeds from misreading Sir Austin’s paper to misunderstanding another paper invoked by Cranor and by Milward’s lawyers. Carelessly tracking Cranor, the appellate court suggested that there was no “hierarchy of evidence”:

“For example, when a group from the National Cancer Institute was asked to rank the different types of evidence, it concluded that ‘‘[t]here should be no such hierarchy.’’ Michele Carbon [sic] et al., Modern Criteria to Establish Human Cancer Etiology, 64 Cancer Res. 5518, 5522 (2004); see also Sheldon Krimsky, The Weight of Scientific Evidence in Policy and Law, 95 Am. J. Pub. Health S129, S130 (2005).”[7]

This quoted language from the Milward opinion shows how slavishly and credulously the court adopted and regurgitated plaintiff’s argument. Sheldon Krimky was actively involved with SKAPP, and his article was presented at the SKAPP-funded Coronado Conference, discussed earlier in this series. Krimsky actually acknowledged that although “the term [WOE] is applied quite liberally in the regulatory literature, the methodology behind it is rarely explicated.”

As for the article by Carbon [sic], this publication never rejected a hierarchy of evidence. The court’s language, quoted above, follows immediately after the court’s discussion of Sir Austin’s nine types of corroborating evidence that would support the causal interpretation of an association. As such, the court seems to imply, incorrectly, that there was no hierarchy of these considerations.[8]

The court’s language also suggests that the quoted language came from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), but its provenance is quite different. The cited article’s lead author, Michele Carbone (not Carbon), was reporting on a workshop hosted by the NCI at an NCI building; it was not an official NCI event or publication. The NCI did not sponsor or conduct the meeting, and Carbone’s paper was not an official statement of the NCI. Carbone’s paper was styled “Meeting Report,” and published as a paid advertisement in Cancer Research, not in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute as a scholarly article.

The discipline of epidemiology was not strongly represented at the meeting; most of the chairpersons and scientists in attendance were pathologists, cell biologists, virologists, and toxicologists. The authors of the meeting report reflect the interests and focus of the scientists in attendance. The lead author, Michele Carbone, a pathologist at the University of Hawaii, was an enthusiastic proponent of Simian Virus 40 as a cause of mesothelioma, a hypothesis that has not fared terribly well in the crucible of epidemiologic science.

The cited article did report some suggestions for modifying Bradford Hill’s criteria in the light of modern molecular biology, as well as a sense of the group that there was no “hierarchy” in which epidemiology was at the top of disciplines.  The group definitely did not address the established concept that some types of epidemiologic studies are analytically more powerful to support inferences of causality than others — the hierarchy of epidemiologic evidence. The group also did not address or reject a ranking of importance of Bradford Hill’s nine viewpoints. There was nothing remarkable about the tumor biologists’ statement that in some cases causality can be determined by careful identification of genetic inheritance or molecular biological pathways. There was no evidence of this sort in the Milward case, and the citation by Cranor and Milward’s lawyers was nothing more than hand waving.

Carbone’s meeting report summarizes informal discussion sessions at the 2003 meeting.  Those in attendance broke out into two groups, one chaired by Brook Mossman, a pathologist, and the other group chaired by Dr. Harald zur Hausen, a virologist. The meeting report included a narrative of how the two groups responded to twelve questions. Drawing from plaintiff’s (and Cranor’s) argument, the court’s citation to this meeting report is based upon one sentence in Carbone’s report, about one of twelve questions:

6. What is the hierarchy of state-of-the-art approaches needed for confirmation criteria, and which bioassays are critical for decisions: epidemiology, animal testing, cell culture, genomics, and so forth?

There should be no such hierarchy. Epidemiology, animal, tissue culture and molecular pathology should be seen as integrating evidences in the determination of human carcinogenicity.”[9]

Considering the fuller context of the meeting, there is nothing particularly surprising about this statement.  The full question and answer in the meeting report does not even remotely support the weight given to it by the court. There was quite a bit of disagreement among meeting participants over criteria for different kinds of carcinogens, as seen the report on another question:

“2. Should the criteria be the same for different agents (viruses, chemicals, physical agents, promoting agents versus initiating DNA-damaging agents)?

There were different opinions. Group 1 debated this issue and concluded that the current listing of criteria should remain the same because we lack sufficient evidence to develop a separate classification. Group 2 strongly supported the view that it is useful to separate the biological or infectious agents from chemical and physical carcinogens due to their frequently entirely different mode of action.”[10]

Carbone and the other authors of the meeting report noted the importance to epidemiology for general causation, while acknowledging its limitations for determining specific causation:

“Concerning the respective roles of epidemiology and molecular pathology, it was noted that epidemiology allows the determination of the overall effect of a given carcinogen in the human population (e.g., hepatitis B virus and hepatocellular carcinoma) but cannot prove causality in the individual tumor patient.”[11]

Clearly, the report was not disavowing the necessity for epidemiology to confirm carcinogenicity in humans. Specific causation of Mr. Milward’s APML was irrelevant to his first appeal to the First Circuit. Carbone’s report emphasized the need to integrate epidemiologic findings with molecular biology; it did not suggest that epidemiology was not necessary or urge that epidemiology be ignored or disregarded:

“A general consensus was often reached on several topics such as the need to integrate molecular pathology and epidemiology for a more accurate and rapid identification of human carcinogens.”[12]

                 * * * * *

“Ideally, before labeling an agent as a human carcinogen, it is important to have epidemiological, experimental animals, and mechanistic evidence (molecular pathology).”[13]

The court’s implication that there was “no hierarchy of evidence” is unsupported by the meeting report. The suggestion that WOE allows some loosey-goosey, ad hoc, unstructured assessment of diverse lines of evidence is rejected in the meeting report with a careful admonition about the lack of validity of some animal models and mechanistic research:

“Moreover, carcinogens and anticarcinogens can have different effects in different situations. As shown by the example of addition of β-carotene in the diet, β- carotene has chemopreventive effects in many experimental systems, yet it appears to have increased the incidence of lung cancer in heavy smokers. Animal experiments can be very useful in predicting the carcinogenicity of a given chemical. However, there are significant differences in susceptibility among species and within organs in the same species, and differences in the metabolic pathway of a given chemical among human and animals could lead to error.”[14]

Inference to the Best Explanation

The First Circuit asserted that “no serious argument can be made that the weight of the evidence approach is inherently unreliable.”[15] As discussed above, this assertion is demonstrably false. In his testimony at the Rule 702 pre-trial hearing, Cranor classified WOE as based upon “inference to the best explanation,” and the First Circuit obsequiously accepted this claim. In articulating and accepting Cranor’s reduction of scientific method to IBE, the appellate court seemed unaware that IBE as an epistemic theory has been roundly criticized. In a very general sense, IBE draws on Charles Pierce’s description of abduction as a mode of reasoning, although many writers have been eager to distinguish abduction from IBE. Bas van Fraassen criticized IBE as lacking merit as a mode of argument in a way germane to Cranor’s presentation of the notion, and the First Circuit’s uncritical acceptance:

“As long as the pattern of Inference to the Best Explanation—henceforth, IBE—is left vague, it seems to fit much rational activity. But when we scrutinize its credentials, we find it seriously wanting.”[16]

The IBE approach raises thorny problems of knowing how to discern the best explanation, or how to tell whether an explanation is simply the best of a bad lot. Other philosophers of science have questioned why explanatoriness should matter as opposed to predictive ability and resistance to falsification upon severe or robust testing.

In the hands of Smith and Cranor, these philosophical quandries become largely beside the point. For Smith and Cranor IBE becomes telling just so stories, which transform “but for” causation into “could be” causation. Drawing directly from Cranor, the Circuit Court explained that an inference to the best explanation involves six general steps for scientists:

“(1) identify an association between an exposure and a disease,

(2) consider a range of plausible explanations for the association,

(3) rank the rival explanations according to their plausibility,

(4) seek additional evidence to separate the more plausible from the less plausible explanations,

(5) consider all of the relevant available evidence, and

(6) integrate the evidence  using professional judgment to come to a conclusion about the best explanation.”[17]

Of course assessing causation requires judgment, but Cranor and Smith radically abridge the process of judging by eliminating:

  • the robust testing of, and attempts to falsify, hypotheses,
  • the weighting of study designs,
  • the pre-specification of kinds of studies to be included or excluded, the assignment of weights to different kinds and qualities of studies, and
  • the pre-specification of criteria of study validity, experimental design, consistency, and exposure-response.

The vague, contentless IBE and WOE, in the hands of Smith, operates just as van Fraassen anticipated. With Cranor’s “philosophizing,” IBE creates a permission structure to reach any desired conclusion. Indeed, Cranor’s approach makes no allowance for when careful scientists withhold judgment because the evidence is inadequate to the task. Furthermore, Cranor’s approach and the Milward decision would cheerily approve cherry picking of studies and data within studies, post hoc weighing of evidence, and even fabricating and rejiggering of evidence, all of which was on display in Smith’s for-litigation opinion.

The First Circuit uttered its mantra of approval of Smith’s scientific delicts in language that became the target of the revision of Rule 702 in 2023:

“the alleged flaws identified by the [district] court go to the weight of Dr. Smith’s opinion, not its admissibility. There is an important difference between what is unreliable support and what a trier of fact may conclude is insufficient support for an expert’s conclusion.”[18]

Earlier in its opinion, the appellate court quoted from the version of Rule 702 in effect when it heard the appeal:

“if (1) the testimony is based upon sufficient facts or data, (2) the testimony is the product of reliable principles and methods, and (3) the witness has applied the principles and methods reliably to the facts of the case.”[19]

Sufficiency, reliability, and validity were all preliminary questions to be decided by the court as part of its gatekeeping responsibility.  The appellate court simply ignored the law in its decision to green light Smith’s testimony.

                    (to be continued)


[1] Milward v. Acuity Specialty Products Group, Inc., 639 F.3d 11 (1st Cir. 2011), cert. denied sub nom., U.S. Steel Corp. v. Milward, 565 U.S. 1111 (2012).

[2] Austin Bradford Hill, The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?, 58 PROC. ROYAL SOC’Y MED. 295 (1965).

[3] Milward, 639 F.3d at 17.

[4] Id. at 295.

[5] See Frank C. Woodside, III & Allison G. Davis, The Bradford Hill Criteria: The Forgotten Predicate, 35 THOMAS JEFFERSON L. REV. 103 (2013).

[6] Milward, 639 F.3d at 17.

[7] Id. (internal citations omitted).

[8] The Reference Manual chapter on medical testimony carefully discusses the hierarchy of evidence as it factors into the assessment of medical causation. John B. Wong, Lawrence O. Gostin & Oscar A. Cabrera, Reference Guide on Medical Testimony, in National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE 687, 723 -24 (2011); John B. Wong, Lawrence O. Gostin, & Oscar A. Cabrera, Reference Guide on Medical Testimony, in National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE 1105, 1150-52 (4th ed. 2025). Interestingly, the chapter on epidemiology in the third edition of the Reference Manual cited to the Carbone workshop with apparent approval, but the same chapter in the fourth edition has dropped the reference. Compare Michael D. Green, D. Michal Freedman & Leon Gordis, Reference Guide on Epidemiology, in National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE 549, 564 n.48 (3rd ed. 2011) with Steve C. Gold, Michael D. Green, Jonathan Chevrier, & Brenda Eskenazi, Reference Guide on Epidemiology, in National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE 897 (4th ed. 2025).

[9] Carbone at 5522.

[10] Carbone at 5521.

[11] Carbone at 5518 (emphasis added).

[12] Carbone at 5518.

[13] Carbone at 5519.

[14] Carbone at 5521.

[15] Milward, 639 F.3d at 18-19.

[16] Bas van Fraassen, LAWS AND SYMMETRY 131 (1989).

[17] Milward, 639 F.3d at 18.

[18] Milward, 639 F.3d at 22.

[19] Milward, 639 F.3d at 14.

Reference Manual’s Chapter on Expert Witness Testimony Admissibility – Part 3

March 2nd, 2026

Richter and Capra treat WOE in Justice Steven’s lone dissenting opinion in Joiner as if it were the law. Of course, it was not; nor was it a particularly insightful analysis into scientific method, Rule 702, or the law of expert witnesses. The Manual authors elevate WOE by their complete failure to offer any criticisms or by citing to the scientific and legal scholars who have criticized WOE.

Richter and Capra do cite to a couple of cases that are skeptical of expert witnesses who had offered WOE opinions, but they fail to cite to any cases that disparage WOE itself.[1] In aggravation of their misplaced focus on the Joiner dissent, Richter and Capra proceed to spend two full pages on the Milward case, which had posthumously appeared in Professor Berger’s version of the law chapter in the 2011, third edition of the Reference Manual. The attention given to Milward in the fourth edition is greater than to any other non-Supreme Court case, including Frye. Richter and Capra offer no commentary or analysis critical of the case, although many legal commentators have criticized the Milward opinion on WOE.[2]

Richter and Capra’s chapter fails to note that a dark cloud hangs over the Milward case due to the unethical non-disclosure of CERT’s amicus brief filed in support of reversing the exclusion of CERT’s founders, Carl Cranor and Martyn Smith,[3] or CERT’s funding Smith’s research, or CERT’s involvement in shaking down corporations in California for Prop 65 bounties.

In their extensive coverage of the 2011 Milward decision, Richter and Capra failed to report that after the First Circuit reversed and remanded, the trial court again excluded plaintiffs’ expert witnesses for failing to give a valid opinion on specific causation. On the second appeal, the First Circuit affirmed the exclusion of specific causation expert witness testimony and the entry of final judgment for defendants.[4] Given that the first appellate decision was no longer necessary to the final disposition of the case, it is questionable whether there is any holding with respect to general causation in the case.

The most salient aspect of Richter and Capra’s uncritical coverage of the Milward case is their complete failure to identify the legal errors made by the First Circuit in its decision on Rule 702 and general causation. As the Reporter to the Rules Advisory Committee, Professor Capra was intimately involved in many meetings and memoranda that addressed the failings of courts to engage properly in gatekeeping. These failings were the gravamen of the basis for the 2023 amendments to Rule 702. The Milward decision in 2011 managed to check almost every box for bad decision making: the appellate panel ignored the text of Rule 702, disregarded Supreme Court precedent in the Joiner case, relied upon over-ruled, obsolete, pre-Daubert decisions, ignored the policy considerations urged by the Supreme Court, bungled basic scientific concepts, and egregiously and credulously endorsed WOE as advocated as a scientific methodology. Professor David E. Bernstein has pointed to the 2011 Milward decision, as “the most notorious,” and “[t]he most prominent example of such judicial truculence” in resisting following the requirements of Rule 702, as it existed in 2011.[5]

Milward is an important case, much as the Berenstain Bears stories are important and helpful in teaching children what not to do. Unfortunately, Richter and Capra discuss Milward in a way that might lead readers to believe that the case represents a reasonable or proper treatment of the science involved in the case. To correct this biased coverage of Milward, readers will have to roll up their sleeves and actually look at what the court did and did not do, and what scientific methodology issues were involved.

Perhaps the best place to begin is the beginning. Brian Milward filed a lawsuit in which he claimed that he was exposed to benzene as a refrigerator technician.[6] He developed acute promyelocytic leukeumia (APML), and claimed that he had been exposed to benzene from having used products made or sold by roughly two dozen companies. APML is a rare disease, type M3 of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), defined by specific chromosomal abnormalities that are necessary but not sufficient to result in APML. APML has an incidence of fewer than five cases per million per year. APML occurs with equal frequency in both sexes; there are no known environmental or occupational causes of APML.[7] APML occurs in the general population without benzene exposure, and its occurrence in all populations is sparse. There are no biomarkers that suggest that some putative benzene-related mechanism is involved in some APML cases, which biomarker would identify the rarity of benzene involvement in causation.

Milward’s General Causation Expert Witness, Martyn T. Smith

Milward did not serve a report from an epidemiologist, or anyone with significant expertise in epidemiology. His only general causation expert witness was Martyn Smith, a toxicologist, who testified that the “weight of the evidence” supported his opinion that benzene exposure causes APML.[8] As noted above, Smith is a member of the advocacy group, the Collegium Ramazzini; and for over 30 years, he has been a frequent testifier for plaintiffs in chemical exposure cases.[9]

Despite the low but widespread prevalence of APML in the general population, with no sex specificity, and the absence of any identifying biomarker of supposed benzene-related etiology in individual cases, Smith maintained that epidemiology was not necessary to reach a causal opinion about benzene and APML. The principal thrust of Smith’s proffered testimony is that APML is a plausible outcome of benzene exposure, because benzene can cause other varieties of AML, by structurally altering chromosomes (clastogenic) by breaking them and causing re-arrangements.[10]

The trial court found that Smith’s extrapolations were problematic and lacking in supporting evidence. The clear differences among AML subtypes made the extrapolation to APML, a unique clinical entity, inappropriate. The characteristic translocation in APML is absent from other varieties of AML, and APML, unlike other AML varieties, is treatable with all-trans retinoic acid.[11]

Smith advanced speculation that benzene targeted cells in the pathway of  leukemic transformation to APML, but the state of science was clearly devoid of sufficient evidence to show that benzene was involved in the APML translocations. Although the parties agreed that mechanistic evidence showed that benzene can effectuate chromosome damage that are characteristic of some AML subtypes other than APML, the trial court found that:

“[n]o evidence has been published making a similar connection between benzene exposure and the t(15;17) translocation, characteristic of APL [APML].”[12]

The trial court assessed Smith’s extrapolation from benzene’s clastogenic effect in breaking and rearranging chromosomes to induce some types of AML to its causing the specific APML t(15;17) translocation, as a

“bull in the china shop generalization: since the bull smashes the teacups, it must also smash the crystal. Whether that is so, of course, would depend on the bull having equal access to both teacups and crystal. If the teacups were easily knocked over, but the crystal securely stored away, a reason would exist to question, if not to reject, the proposition that the crystal was in as much danger as the teacups.”[13]

The trial judge clearly saw that Smith’s plausibility proved too much, and would support attributing virtually any disease to benzene through a putative mechanism of breaking chromosomes.

Lacking the courage of his convictions, Smith, non-epidemiologist, proceeded to offer opinions about the epidemiology of benzene and APML, some of them quite fanciful. No published or unpublished study showed a statistically significant increase in APML among benzene-exposed workers. The most Smith could draw from the published epidemiologic studies on benzene was one Chinese study that found a small risk ratio, without even nominal statistical significance: a crude odds ratio of 1.42 for benzene exposure and APML. Despite Smith’s hand waving about lack of power,[14] this Chinese study suggested that chloramphenicol was a risk factor for APML (M3), and it was able to identify a nominally statistically significant association between benzene and another sub-type of AML (M2a), with an odds ratio of 1.54.[15]

Smith offered no meta-analysis to show that the available studies collectively established a summary estimate of increased risk for APML among benzene workers. Undaunted, Smith set about to re-jigger the numbers in published studies to make something out of nothing. Neither physician nor epidemiologist, Smith altered diagnoses and exposure status as reported in published papers so that his reclassified cases and controls would yield, where none existed. These re-analyses were done speculatively, inconsistently, and incompetently, and were driven by the motivation to make something out of nothing. His approach was unsupported, unprincipled, and lacking in any reasonable methodology. The proffered re-analyses were never published, never presented at a professional society meeting, and never could comply with the standards used by epidemiologists used in their non-litigation activities. As a toxicologist, Smith did not have any non-litigation epidemiologic activities of note.

Smith’s representation of the relevant epidemiologic methods and studies was misleading and contained numerous errors that cumulatively led to erroneous conclusions; his own re-jiggering was carried out to reach a preferred conclusion to support plaintiff’s litigation case.[16]

One of the epidemiologic studies relied upon by Smith was Golumb (1982).[17] This study did not explore associations with benzene; it was a study of insecticides, chemicals and solvents, and petroleum. Crude oil contains very little benzene, typically about 0.1 percent.[18] Smith, without any evidentiary support, assumed that petroleum exposure equated to benzene exposure.

There were eight cases of cases of leukemia with petroleum exposure; one of those cases was APML. The authors of Golumb (1982) reported that this particular case with APML was actually a crane operator.[19]

In analyzing published epidemiologic studies, Smith insisted that he could re-classify APML cases to non-APML in control subjects, in studies, when the karyotype was normal. Karyotype analysis identifies the defining translocations of specific chromosomes in APML, and is found in virtually all such cases. The obvious result of Smith’s ad hoc reclassifications were to increase risk ratios for APML among benzene-exposed subjects. His arbitrary reclassifications of data allowed him to create the result he desired. In reviewing other published studies, Smith insisted that normal karyotype did not require reclassifying cases out of the APML category, when this approach would yield a risk ratio above one. 

Taking data from the Golumb 1982 paper, Smith attempted to inflate his calculation of an odds ratio, which would support his causation opinion. He arbitrarily discarded two APML from the non-exposed cases, and he discarded eight non-APML cases from the exposed subjects. He did not report p-values or confidence intervals for his reanalyses. At the hearing, the defense epidemiologist showed that Smith’s rejiggered odds ratio (1.51) had a p-value of 0.72, and a 95 percent confidence interval of 0.15 – 14.91. Not only was the result not statistically significant, the confidence interval shows that there was a range of alternative hypotheses over an order of magnitude in range, with none of them being rejected based upon the sample data at an alpha of 0.05. Without the rejiggering of exposed and unexposed cases, the odds ratio would have been 0.71, p = 0.76. All results, both as reported in the published article and as rejiggered by Smith were highly compatible with no association whatsoever.

In discussing other studies, Smith repeated his re-labeling of leukemia cases as APML, in the absence of karyotyping, to support his claims that there were more APML cases observed than expect on general population rates.[20] Smith also cited studies improvidently in supposed support of his opinion (Rinsky 1981; updated in 1994), where there was no association at all. Even workers heavily exposed to benzene in these studies did not develop APML.[21]  Similarly, in support of his opinion, Smith cited another Chinese study, which actually declared that:

“Acute promyelocytic leukemia has been reported infrequently in benzene-exposed groups as well as in t-ANLL. Although ANLL-M3 occurred in at least 4 patients in this series, its general representation among the subtypes of ANLL was similar in its distribution in de novo ANLL in China.”[22]

Smith’s methodological improprieties were the subject of a four day pre-trial hearing before Judge O’Toole. In the course of the hearings, Smith attempted to defends his methods, but like Donny Kerabatsos, in the Big Lebowski, Smith was out of his depth. The trial court found that Dr. Smith’s arbitrary creating and choosing data to support his beliefs was unreliable and not in accordance with generally accepted scientific methodology in the fields of medicine or epidemiology. Smith was simply fabricating data to fit his made-for-litigation beliefs.

Carl Cranor’s Attempt to Bolster Smith

Milward also submitted a report from Carl Forest Cranor, Smith’s business partner in founding the Prop 65 bounty-hunting CERT, and a fellow member of the advocacy group Collegium Ramazzini. Cranor has no expertise in toxicology or epidemiology, and he has never published on the cause of APML. As a professor of philosophy, Cranor has written about scientific methodology, including WOE and “inference to the best explanation (IBE).” Cranor’s publications are riddled with basic misunderstandings of statistical concepts.[23] Essentially, Cranor testified at the Rule 702 hearing, as a cheerleader for Smith, and to advocate for open admissions of dodgy scientific conclusions as acceptable with a methodology he described as WOE or IBE. Cranor stretched to resurrect Justice Stevens’ use of WOE, and attempted to pass it off as a generally accepted scientific mode of reasoning.

The trial court carefully reviewed the proffered opinion testimony in a four day pre-trial hearing. The trial court found that Smith had shown that his hypothesis was plausible and possible, but not that it was “scientific knowledge,” as required by Rule 702. Lacking sufficient scientific methodological validity and support, Smith’s opinions failed to satisfy the requirements of Rule 702, and were thus inadmissible. As a result of excluding plaintiff’s sole general causation expert witness, the trial court granted summary judgment to the defendants.[24]

(to be continued)


[1] See, e.g., Allen v. Pennsylvania Eng’g Corp., 102 F.3d 194, 197-98 (5th Cir. 1996) (“We are also unpersuaded that the ‘weight of the evidence’ methodology these experts use is scientifically acceptable for demonstrating a medical link between Allen’s EtO [ethylene oxide] exposure and brain cancer.”); Magistrini v. One Hour Martinizing Dry Cleaning, 180 F. Supp. 2d 584, 601-02 (D.N.J. 2002) (excluding David Ozonoff, whose WOE analysis of whether perchloroethylene causes acute myelomonocytic leukemia was criticized by court-appointed technical advisor), aff’d, 68 F. App’x 356 (3d Cir. 2003).

[2] See Eric Lasker, Manning the Daubert Gate: A Defense Primer in Response to Milward v. Acuity Specialty Products, 79 DEF. COUNS. J. 128, 128 (2012); David E. Bernstein, The Misbegotten Judicial Resistance to the Daubert Revolution, 89 NOTRE DAME L. REV. 27, 29, 53-58 (2013); David E. Bernstein & Eric G. Lasker, Defending Daubert: It’s Time to Amend Federal Rule of Evidence 702, 57 WM. & MARY L. REV. 1, 33 (2015); Richard Collin Mangrum, Comment on the Proposed Revision of Federal Rule 702: “Clarifying” the Court’s Gatekeeping Responsibility over Expert Testimony, 56 CREIGHTON LAW REVIEW 97, 106 & n.45 (2022); Thomas D. Schroeder, Toward a More Apparent Approach to Considering the Admission of Expert Testimony, 95 NOTRE DAME L. REV. 2039, 2045 (2020); Lawrence A. Kogan, Weight of the Evidence: A Lower Expert Evidence Standard Metastasizes in Federal Court, Washington Legal Foundation Critical Legal Issues WORKING PAPER Series no. 215 (Mar. 2020); Note, Judicial Conference Amends Rule 702. — Federal Rule of Evidence 702, 138 HARV. L. REV. 899, 903 (2025); Nathan A. Schachtman, Desultory Thoughts on Milward v. Acuity Specialty Products, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.5011.5285 (Oct. 2015), available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282816421_Desultory_Thoughts_on_Milward_v_Acuity_Specialty_Products .

[3] See David DeMatteo & Kellie Wiltsie, When Amicus Curiae Briefs are Inimicus Curiae Briefs: Amicus Curiae Briefs and the Bypassing of Admissibility Standards, 72 AM. UNIV. L. REV. 1871 (2022) (noting that amicus briefs often include “unvetted and potentially inaccurate, misleading, or mischaracterized expert information,” without the procedural safeguards in place for vetting expert witnesses at trial).

[4] Milward v. Acuity Specialty Prods. Group, Inc., 969 F. Supp. 2d 101, 109 (D. Mass. 2013), aff’d sub. nom., Milward v. Rust-Oleum Corp., 820 F.3d 469, 471, 477 (1st Cir. 2016).

[5] David E. Bernstein, The Misbegotten Judicial Resistance to the Daubert Revolution, 89 NOTRE DAME L. REV. 27, 53, 29 (2013).

[6] Milward v. Acuity Specialty Products Group, Inc., 664 F. Supp. 2d 137 (D. Mass. 2009) (O’Toole, J.), rev’d, 639 F.3d 11 (1st Cir. 2011), cert. denied, U.S. Steel Corp. v. Milward, 565 U.S. 1111 (2012).

[7] Andrew Y. Li, et al., Clustered incidence of adult acute promyelocytic leukemia in the vicinity of Baltimore, 61 LEUKEMIA & LYMPHOMA 2743 (2021); Hassan Ali, et al., Epidemiology and Survival Outcomes of Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia in Adults: A SEER Database Analysis, 144 BLOOD 5942 S1 (2024).

[8] Milward, 664 F. Supp. 2d at 142.

[9] See, e.g., PPG Industries, Inc. v. Wells, No. 21-0232 (Feb. 10, 2023 W.Va.S.Ct.); Hall v. ConocoPhillips, 248 F. Supp. 3d 1177 (W.D. Okla. 2017); In re Levaquin Prods. Liab. Litig., 739 F.3d 401 (8th Cir. 2014); Jacoby v. Rite Aid Corp., No. 1508 EDA 2012 (Dec. 9, 2013 Pa. Super.); Harris v. CSX Transp., Inc., 232 W.Va. 617, 753 S.E.2d 275 (2013); In re Baycol Prods. Litig., 495 F. Supp. 2d 977 (D. Minn. 2007); In re Rezulin Prods. Liab. Litig., MDL 1348, 441 F.Supp.2d 567 (S.D.N.Y. 2006) (advocating mythological “silent injury”); Perry v. Novartis, 564 F.Supp.2d 452 (E.D. Pa. 2008); Dodge v. Cotter Corp., 328 F.3d 1212 (10th Cir. 2003); Sutera v. The Perrier Group of America Inc., 986 F. Supp. 655 (D. Mass. 1997); Redland Soccer Club, Inc. v. Dep’t of Army, 835 F.Supp. 803 (M.D. Pa. 1993).

[10] Milward, 664 F.Supp. 2d at 143-44.

[11] Milward, 664 F.Supp. 2d at 144.

[12] Id. at 146

[13] Id.

[14] The claim that a study lacks power is meaningless without a specification of the alternative hypothesis, the risk ratio the researcher thinks is the population parameter, at a specified level of alpha (typically p < 0.05), and a specified probability model. While virtually all studies would have reasonable statistical power (say 80 percent probability) to reject an alternative hypothesis that the risk ratio exceeded 10,000, no study would have power to detect a risk ratio of 1.0001, at a high level of probability.

[15] Yi Zhongguo, et al. (National Investigative Group for the Survey of Leukemia & Aplastic Anemia), Countrywide Analysis of Risk Factors for Leukemia and Aplastic Anemia, 14 ACTA ACADEMIAE MEDICINAE SINICAE 185 (1992).

[16] Milward, 664 F. Supp. 2d at 148-49.

[17] Harvey M. Golomb, et al., Correlation of Occupation and Karyotype in Adults With Acute Nonlymphocytic Leukemia, 60 BLOOD 404 (1982).

[18] Bo Holmberg, Per Lundberg, Benzene: standards, occurrence, and exposure, 7 AM. J. INDUS. MED. 375 (1985).

[19] Golumb, supra at note 17, at 407.

[20] See, e.g., Song-Nian Yin, et al., A cohort study of cancer among benzene-exposed workers in China: overall results, 29 AM. J. INDUS. MED. 227 (1996).

[21] Robert A. Rinsky, et al., Leukemia in Benzene Workers, 2 AM. J. INDUS. MED. 217 (1981); Mary B. Paxton, et al., Leukemia Risk Associated with Benzene Exposure in the Pliofilm Cohort: I. Mortality Update and Exposure Distribution, 14 RISK ANALYSIS 147 (1994); Mary B. Paxton, et al., Leukemia Risk Associated with Benzene Exposure in the Pliofilm Cohort II. Risk Estimates, 14 RISK ANALYSIS 155 (1994).

[22] Lois B. Travis, et al., Hematopoietic Malignancies and Related Disorders Among Benzene-Exposed Workers in China, 14 LEUKEMIA & LYMPHOMA 91, 99 (1994).

[23] See, e.g., Carl F. Cranor, REGULATING TOXIC SUBSTANCES: A PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE AND THE LAW at 33-34(1993) (conflating random error with posterior probabilities: “One can think of α, β (the chances of type I and type II errors, respectively) and 1- β as measures of the “risk of error” or “standards of proof.”); id. at 44, 47, 55, 72-76.

[24] 664 F. Supp. 2d at 140, 149.

The First Daubert Motion

February 20th, 2026

As every school child knows, or at least every law student in the United States knows, Daubert was a Bendectin case. The plaintiff claimed that his mother’s use of Bendectin, a prescription anti-nausea medication, during pregnancy caused him to be born with a major limb reduction defect.

Filed in 1984, the Daubert case was pending, in summer 1989, before Judge Earl Ben Gilliam, in the Southern District of California. A trial date was approaching, and a deadline for motions for summary judgment. The first Daubert motion was filed in August 1989, in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc.[1] It was a motion for summary judgment, not a motion specifically to exclude plaintiffs’ expert witness’s proffered testimony.

By the time of the first Daubert motion, the plaintiff was relying upon the anticipated testimony of John Davis Palmer, M.D. For the time, John Davis Palmer was not an unlikely expert witness. Although Palmer practiced internal medicine, he had a doctorate in pharmacology. Palmer, however, had no experience studying Bendectin, and no real expertise in epidemiology. He had never designed or published an epidemiologic study, and he had never done any kind of research on Bendectin. The standard for qualifying an expert witness, even in federal court, has always been very low, and thus not an effective way to police the quality of scientific evidence.

Palmer was a rather late substitute for expert witnesses previously listed by the plaintiff. Alan Kimball Done, a pediatrician, had been the main warhorse of the Bendectin plaintiffs, but he was withdrawn by plaintiff’s counsel after he was found to have committed perjury about his academic credentials in another Bendectin case.[2]

Plaintiff also needed to drop another expert witness, William Griffith McBride, who had been a star in plaintiff’s counsel’s stable. McBride helped show the teratogenicity of thalidomide in the early 1960s,[3] and his work in the Bendectin litigation gave these dodgy cases some patina of respectability. In 1988, however, McBride was accused of fraud, for which he would eventually lose his medical license.[4] McBride also chose, rather improvidently, to sue journalists, journals, and Merrell Dow executives, for reporting his rather extensive fees, only to lose that litigation.[5] When plaintiff’s counsel withdrew McBride, plaintiff was left with only Dr. Palmer to serve as plaintiff’s sole expert witness on both general and specific causation.

At the time that the first Daubert motion was filed, manufacturer Merrell Dow had voluntarily withdrawn Bendectin from the market, without any suggestion from the FDA that this action was necessary or in the public interest. The manufacturer had also enjoyed considerable success in court. The company had tried a case that consolidated the general causation claims of over 800 plaintiffs, to a defense jury verdict, in 1985, before Chief Judge Carl Rubin, of the Southern District of Ohio.[6] Despite some isolated trial losses, the company was vindicated in three federal circuits at the time its lawyers filed the “Daubert” motion.[7] The First, Fifth, and District of Columbia Circuits of the United States Court of Appeals, had all held that the plaintiffs’ case was legally insufficient to sustain a verdict against the defendant, or that the expert testimony involved was inadmissible.

In the Daubert case, Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals was represented by the law firm Dickson, Carlson & Campillo. The important task of drafting the motion for summary judgment landed on the desk of a first year associate, Pamela Yates, who is now a partner at Arnold & Porter. Given that Merrell Dow had succeeded in other appellate courts, the task may have seemed straight forward, but the legal theories were actually all over the map.

The first Daubert motion was not styled as a motion to exclude expert witness opinion testimony, but rather as a motion for summary judgment, pursuant to Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 56, on the issue of causation. Merrell Dow’s supporting brief did not clearly invoke the distinction between general and specific causation, which distinction was not widely drawn until later in the 1990s. The supporting brief implicitly addressed both general and specific causation.

At the time that the first Daubert motion was made, there was no clear consensus of precedent that identified the source of support for a trial court’s ruling peremptorily on a weak evidentiary display on the causation issue. The evidence supporting the defense expert witnesses’ opinion that Bendectin had not been shown to cause birth defects generally and limb reduction defects specifically was strong. For all major congenital defects, there had been no change in overall incidence for the years in which Bendectin was marketed. Such an ecological argument usually has no validity, but in the case of Bendectin, for several years, roughly half of all pregnant women used the medication. When the medication was abruptly withdrawn,[8] not because of the science but because of the cost of the litigation, the rate of birth defects remained unaffected. The great majority of birth defects have no known cause, and there was no scientific consensus that Bendectin caused birth defects; indeed by 1989, the nearly universal consensus was that Bendectin did not cause birth defects.[9]

There were also many analytical epidemiologic studies, which both individually or in combination failed to support a conclusion of causation.

In the face of the defense’s affirmative evidence, the plaintiff relied upon a potpourri of evidence:

1) chemical structure activity analysis;

2) in vitro (test tube) studies;

3 ) in vivo studies (animal teratology) studies; and

4) reanalysis of epidemiology studies.

Plaintiff’s lead counsel Barry Nace[10] had concocted this potpourri approach, which he called “mosaic theory,” and which might more aptly be called the tsemish or the shmegegge theory.[11] Whatever Nace called it, he fed it to his expert witness to argue that:

“Like the pieces of a mosaic, the individual studies showed little or nothing when viewed separately from one another, but they combined to produce a whole that was greater than the sum of its parts: a foundation for Dr. Done’s opinion that Bendectin caused appellant’s birth defects.”[12]

Although philosopher Harry Frankfurt had not yet written his seminal treatise on the subject, most courts saw that this was bullshit, which tends to result “whenever a person’s obligations or opportunities to speak about some topic exceed his knowledge of the facts that are relevant to that topic.”[13]

In addition to favorable opinions from the First, Fifth, and District of Columbia Circuits, Merrell Dow had a favorable Zeitgeist working in its favor. The plaintiff-friendly influential judge, Judge Jack Weinstein, had rolled up his sleeves and taken a hard look at the plaintiffs’ scientific evidence in the Agent Orange litigation. Judge Weinstein found that evidence wanting in an important opinion in 1985.[14] Although the alleged causal agent in Agent Orange was not Bendectin, Judge Weinstein recognized that epidemiological studies were, in a similar medico-legal context, “the only useful studies having any bearing on causation.[15] Judge Weinstein relied heavily upon Federal Rule of Evidence Rule 703, which governed what inadmissible studies expert witnesses could rely upon, to whittle down the reliance list of plaintiffs’ expert witnesses before declaring their opinions too fragile to support a reasonable jury’s verdict in favor of plaintiffs.

More generally, discerning members of the legal system were reaching the end of their tolerance for the common law laissez-faire approach to expert witness evidence. In 1986, the Department of Justice issued a report that explicitly called for meaningful judicial gatekeeping of expert witnesses.[16] And in that same year, 1986, Judge Patrick Higginbotham wrote an influential opinion, in which he warned that expert witness opinion testimony was out of control, with expert witnesses becoming mouth pieces for the lawyers and advocates of policy beyond their proper role. Judge Higginbotham observed that trial judges (with support from appellate court judges) had a duty to address the problem by policing the soundness of opinions proffered in litigation, and to reject the system’s reliance upon expert witnesses simply because they “say[] it is so:”[17]

“we recognize the temptation to answer objections to receipt of expert testimony with the short hand remark that the jury will give it ‘the weight it deserves’. This nigh reflective explanation may be sound in some cases, but in others it can mask a failure by the trial judge to come to grips with an important trial decision. Trial judges must be sensitive to the qualifications of persons claiming to be experts … . Our message to our able trial colleagues: It is time to take hold of expert testimony in federal trials.”[18]

Although Merrell Dow had a substantial tailwind behind its motion for summary judgment, there was no one clear theory upon which it could rely. Some of the Bendectin appellate court opinions were based upon the insufficiency of the plaintiffs’ expert witness evidence, on the basis of the entire record after trial. The evidence in Daubert was virtually the same if not more restricted than what was of record in some of those appellate court cases. The ecological evidence was clear.

Some of the judgments relied upon by Merrell Dow were based upon the Frye test, and some were based upon Rule 703, which addresses what kinds of otherwise inadmissible evidence expert witnesses may rely upon in formulating their opinions. Finally, some courts, such as Fifth Circuit in In Re Air Crash Disaster at New Orleans, were beginning to see Rule 702 as the source of their authority to control wayward expert witness opinion testimony.

Merrell Dow advanced multiple lines of analyses to show that plaintiffs cannot establish causation based upon the then current scientific record. The first Daubert motion had no clear line of authority, and so, understandably, it cast a wide net on all available potential legal rules and doctrines to oppose the plantiff’s potpourri Bendectin causation theory. The motion harnessed precedents based upon sufficiency of the plaintiffs’ proffered expert witness, Federal Rules 702 and 703, as well as the 1923 Frye case.[19]

The cases that invoked Frye doctrine presented several interpretative problems. Frye was a criminal case that prohibited expert witnesses from testifying about their interpretations of the output of a mechanical device. The Frye case’s insistence upon general acceptance, when imported into a causation dispute in a tort case, was ambiguous as to what exactly had to be generally accepted: the specific causal claim, or the method used to reach the causal claim, or the method used as applied to the facts of the case. Furthermore, Frye’s requirement of general acceptance was not explicitly incorporated into either Rule 702 or 703, when promulgated in 1975.[20]

Merrell Dow had ample evidence that there was no general acceptance of the plaintiff’s causal claim, but its counsel also showed that by applying generally accepted methodology, scientists could not reach the plaintiff’s causal conclusion, and no scientist outside of the litigation had done so. In particular, there was general acceptance of the propositions that non-human in vivo and in vitro teratology experiments have little if any predictive ability for human outcomes. Because randomized controlled trials were never an option for testing human teratogenicity, observational epidemiology was required, and the available studies were largely exonerative. Only by post-publication data dredging and manipulation was plaintiffs’ expert witness Palmer (following what Shann Swan had done in previous cases) able to raise questions about possible associations. Plaintiff’s expert witness Palmer could not show that these manipulations were a generally accepted method for interpreting or re-analyzing published studies.

In its last point, the first Daubert motion also maintained that the standard for medical causation required that the relevant relative risk exceed two.[21] As noted, the brief did not distinguish general from specific causation, a distinction that had not entered the legal lexicon fully in 1989. The brief’s citation to swine-flu cases, however, clarifies the nature of Merrell Dow’s argument. In the swine-flu litigation, the United States government assumed liability for adverse effects of a vaccine for swine flu. The government recognized that within a certain time window after vaccination, patients had more than a doubled risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), an autoimmune neurological condition. The government refused compensation for claimants outside that window. Merrell Dow relied heavily upon one swine flu case, Cook v. United States, which articulated and applied the principle:

“Wherever the relative risk to vaccinated persons is greater than two times the risk to unvaccinated persons, there is a greater than 50% chance that a given GBS case among vaccinees of that latency period is attributable to vaccination, thus sustaining plaintiff’s burden of proof on causation.”[22]

In other words, the government had conceded that the swine-flu vaccine could cause GBS in some temporal situations, but not others. The magnitude of the causal association had been quantified in relative risk terms by epidemiologic studies. Only for those claimants vaccinated in time windows with relative risks greater than two could courts conclude that GBS was, more likely than not, caused by vaccination.

Unlike the federal government in the swine-flu GBS litigation, Merrell Dow was not, however, conceding general causation for any exposure scenarios. The first Daubert motion can only be read to deny general causation, but to explain further that even if the court were to assume, arguendo, that Bendectin causes limb reduction deficits based upon Palmer’s schmegegge and Swan’s re-jiggered risk ratios, that there would still be no proper inference that Bendectin more likely than not caused Jason Daubert’s birth defects.

In response to these arguments, the plaintiff’s counsel argued their mosaic, potpourri, schmegegge theories. Although plaintiffs were down to Dr. Palmer, they filed transcripts and affidavits from a host of other expert witnesses, from previous Bendectin cases.

As for the legal rules of decision, Barry Nace, on behalf of plaintiffs, argued that Rule 703 had “absorbed” the Frye rule. Having been shown to be qualified under the minimal standard of Rule 702, these expert witnesses then satisfied Rule 703 by relying upon “scientific evidence” of the sort that experts in their field rely upon, even if other scientists would not rely upon such evidence in support of a conclusion. Otherwise those expert witnesses were unrestrained by the law, and they were free to assess their relied upon facts and data as sufficient to show that Bendectin probably causes birth defects and that Bendectin caused Jason Daubert’s birth defects. Nace argued that as long as expert witnesses, properly qualified, offered relevant opinions, based upon “things of science,” they could opine that the earth was flat, and it was for the jury to sort out whether to believe them.

Judge Earl Gilliam found Nace’s position untenable, and granted summary judgment later in 1989.[23] Interestingly Judge Gilliam’s opinion in the district court never cited Federal Rule of Evidence 702. Instead, the opinion pointed to Rule 703, as restricting evidence, even if “science,” unless the proponent showed that the underlying principle had gained general acceptance in the relevant field.[24] Opinions not based upon facts or data “of a type reasonably relied upon by experts in the particular field” would be confusing, misleading, and unhelpful, and thus inadmissible. The reference to helpfulness might perhaps be taken as an implicit invocation of Rule 702.

Judge Gilliam had the benefit of the Circuit decisions in Brock, Richardson, and Lynch, with their various holdings of insufficiency or inadmissibility of plaintiffs’ expert witness evidence. In particular, Judge Gilliam cited Brock for the proposition that trial courts must “critically evaluate the reasoning process by which the experts connect data to their conclusions in order for courts to consistently and rationally resolve the disputes before them.”[25] Following Judge Weinstein on Agent Orange, and the previous federal decisions on Bendectin, Judge Gilliam observed that causation in the Bendectin cases could be established, under the circumstances of plaintiffs’ evidentiary display, only through reliance upon epidemiologic evidence. Dr. Done’s schmeggege, concocted as it was by Barry Nace, would not get plaintiffs to a jury.

Judge Gilliam went further to point out that some of plaintiffs’ proffer did not even purport to claim causation. Shanna Swan’s prior testimony asserted that Bendectin was “associated” with limb reduction. Jay Glasser, a specialist in biostatistics, epidemiology and biometry had opined that “Bendectin is within a reasonable degree of epidemiological certainty associated with congenital disorders, including limb defects.” Dr. Johannes Thiersch, a specialist in pathology and pharmacology, proclaimed that “structure analysis” was “of great interest.”[26] In other words, there was a good deal of true, true, but immaterial opinion in what Mr. Nace had thrown over the transom, in opposition to the motion for summary judgment.

Nace appealed, and the Daubert case was argued to the Ninth Circuit in 1991. In a short opinion by Judge Kozinski, the appellate court affirmed the judgment below.[27] The affirmance did not mention Rule 702; rather it relied upon the decisions of other Circuits, in which the plaintiffs’ evidentiary display had been found insufficient to sustain a reasonable jury verdict.

Judge Kozinski’s opinion tilted towards Rule 703 and the Frye standard in citing to cases that stated, based upon Frye, that expert witnesses must use generally accepted techniques from the scientific community. As a legal determination, the determination of general acceptance vel non was a legal determination reviewable de novo. For its de novo decision on general acceptance, the Ninth Circuit relied upon the cases coming from the First, Fifth, and District of Columbia Circuits,[28] and of course, the record below.

By 1991, another Circuit, the Third, had weighed in on the same evidentiary display, when it reversed summary judgment for Merrell Dow, and remanded for reconsideration under the Third Circuit’s approach to Rule 702. Judge Kozinski declared that the Third Circuit’s approach was not followed in the Ninth Circuit, and proceeded to ignore the DeLuca case.[29]

Judge Kozinski treated the insufficiency and the invalidity of the Nace/Done schmeggege theory as legal precedent, and thus the court’s opinion gave very little attention by way of expository description or explanation of the problems with the four factors (in vitro, in vivo, structure analysis, and re-analysis of epidemiologic studies). As Judge Kozinski put the matter:

 “For the convincing reasons articulated by our sister circuits, we agree with the district court that the available animal and chemical studies, together with plaintiffs’ expert reanalysis of epidemiological studies, provide insufficient foundation to allow admission of expert testimony to the effect that Bendectin caused plaintiffs’ injuries.”[30]

And thus, summary judgment was proper in Daubert. Judge Kozinksi, like Judge Gilliam in the district court, never reached the specific causation argument that involved risk ratios less than two.

Some of the Circuit court cases relied upon by Judge Kozinski delved into the invalidity of these methods for determining the causes of human birth defects. The Lynch decision explored in some detail the Shanna Swan made-for-litigation rejiggering of a study based upon data from the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program, which included a challenge to whether it could be reasonably relied upon (Rule 703), as well as its pretense to support a scientific conclusion (Rule 702).[31] Later commentators would skirt the validity issue by asserting that re-analysis, in the abstract, is not impermissible or invalid, without addressing the specific issues discussed in the reported decisions. Other commentators have misrepresented Swan’s re-analysis as a meta-analysis, which it was not.

Some commentators have complained that the defense in Daubert made too much of the lack of statistical significance. Their complaint, in the abstract, might have some salience. In some contexts, an isolated and elevated risk ratio greater or less than one may well have important information, even if the p-value is a bit above 0.05. The lack of statistical significance at the conventional five percent, however, conveys important information about the finding’s imprecision, especially when there was a large dataset to evaluate. In 1994, a meta-analysis was published that found a summary estimate of all birth defects in the available epidemiologic studies to be an odds ratio of 0.95 (95% C.I., 0.88-1.04), and the summary estimate for limb reduction defects to be an odds ratio 1.12 (95% C.I., 0.83-1.48).[32]


[1] Defendant’s Memorandum of Points and Authorities in Support of Its Motion for Summary Judgment on the Issue of Causation, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharms., Inc., Case No. 84-2013-G(I) (S.D. Cal. Aug. 2, 1989). The motion was made in a companion case before Judge Gilliam as well, Schuller v. Merrell Dow Pharms., Inc., Case No. 84-2929-G(I). The first Daubert motion may not have been the first one drafted. The linked brief is the first one as filed.

[2] See Oxendine v. Merrell Dow Pharms., Inc., 563 A.2d 330 (D.C. Ct. App. 1989).

[3] William Griffith McBride, Thalidomide and Congenital Abnormalities, 278 LANCET 1358 (1961).

[4] William Griffith McBride, McBride criticizes inquiry, 336 NATURE 614 (1988); Norman Swan, Disciplinary tribunal for McBride, 299 BRIT. MED. J. 1360 (1989); G. F. Humphrey, Scientific fraud: the McBride case, 32 MED. SCI. LAW 199 (1992); Mark Lawson, McBride found guilty of fraud, 361 NATURE 673 (1993); Leigh Dayton, Thalidomide hero found guilty of scientific fraud, NEW SCI. (Feb.27, 1993); William McBride: alerted the world to the dangers of thalidomide in fetal development, 362 BRIT. MED. J. k3415 (2018).

[5] McBride v. Merrell Dow & Pharms., Inc., 800 F.2d 1208 (D.C. Ct. App. 1986). McBride ultimately failed against all his litigation targets.

[6] See In Re Richardson-Merrell. Inc. Bendectin Prods. Liab. Litig., 624 F.Supp. 1212 (S.D. Ohio 1985); aff’d sub nom. In re Bendectin Litig., 857 F.2d 290 (6th Cir. 1988); cert. denied, 488 US 1006 (1989).

[7] Brock v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals Inc., 874 F.2d 307 (5th Cir. 1989); Richardson y. Richardson-Merrell, 857 F.2d 823 (D.C. Cir. 1988); Lynch v. Merrell-National Labs., 830 F.2d 1190 (1st Cir. 1987) (affirming grant of summary judgment).

[8] US Food & Drug Admin., Determination That Bendectin Was Not Withdrawn from Sale for Reasons of Safety or Effectiveness, 64 FED. REG. 43190–1 (1999).

[9] Brief at 3-4.

[10] Barry Nace was one of the lead plaintiffs’ counsel in the Bendectin litigation, and he represented the Daubert family. Nace was also formerly President of the lawsuit industry’s principal lobbying organization, the American Trial Lawyers Association (now the AAJ). See also In re Barry J. Nace, A Member of the Bar of the District of Columbia Court of Appeals (Bar Registration No. 130724), No. 13–BG–1439, Slip op. (Sept. 4, 2014), available at <https://www.dccourts.gov/sites/default/files/pdf-opinions/13-BG-1439.pdf>, last visited on Feb. 8, 2026.

[11] See Michael D. Green, Pessimism about Milward, 3 WAKE FOREST J. L & POL’Y 41, 63 (2013) (paraphrasing Nace as describing the mosaic theory as “[d]amn brilliant, and I was the one who thought of it and fed it to Alan [Done].”).

[12] Id. at 61 (2013) (citing Oxendine v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 506 A.2d 1100, 1110 (D.C. 1986).

[13] Harry Frankfurt, ON BULLSHIT 63 (2005).

[14] In re “Agent Orange” Prod. Liab. Litig., 611 F. Supp. 1223 (E.D.N.Y. 1985), aff’d, 818 F.2d 187 (2d Cir. 1987), cert. denied, 487 U.S. 1234 (1988).

[15] Id. at p. 1231.

[16] United States Dep’t of Justice, Tort Policy Working Group, Report of the Tort Policy Working Group on the causes, extent and policy implications of the current crisis in insurance availability and affordability at 35 (Report No. 027-000-01251-5) (Wash. DC 1986), available at https://archive.org/details/micro_IA41152903_0369.

[17] In Re Air Crash Disaster at New Orleans, 795 F.2d 1230, 1233-34 (5th Cir. 1986).

[18] Id. at 1233-34.

[19] The Brief, at 2, cited United States v. Kilgus, 571 F.2d 508, 510 (9th Cir. 1987) (citing Frye).

[20] An Act to Establish Rules of Evidence for Certain Courts and Proceedings. Pub. L. 93–595, 88 Stat. 1926 (1975).

[21] Brief at 17.

[22] 545 F.Supp. 306, 308 (N.D. Cal. 1982). See generally Richard E. Neustadt & Harvey V. Fineberg, THE SWINE FLU AFFAIR: DECISION-MAKING ON A SLIPPERY DISEASE (Nat’l Acad. Sci. 1978).

[23] Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharms., Inc., 727 F.Supp. 570 (S.D. Cal. 1989).

[24] Id. at 571, citing United States v. Kilgus, 571 F.2d 508, 510 (9th Cir.1978).

[25] Id. at 572 (citing Brock, 874 F.2d at 310).

[26] Id. at 574. The use of “association” was at best ambiguous, because it begged the question whether it as an association that was “clear cut” (reasonably free from bias and confounding), and beyond that which we would care to attribute to chance.

[27] Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharms., Inc., 951 F.2d 1128 (9th Cir. 1991).

[28] Brock v. Merrell Dow Pharms., Inc., 874 F.2d 307, modified, 884 F.2d 166 (5th Cir.1989), cert. denied, 494 U.S. 1046 (1990); Richardson v. Richardson–Merrell, Inc., 857 F.2d 823 (D.C.Cir.1988), cert. denied, 493 U.S. 882 (1989); Lynch v. Merrell–National Labs., 830 F.2d 1190 (1st Cir.1987).

[29] DeLuca v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 131 F.R.D. 71 (D.N.J.) (granting summary judgment), rev’d and remanded, 911 F.2d 941 (3d Cir.1990). On remand, the district court entered summary judgment on the alternative reasoning of Rule 702, as interpreted by the Third Circuit. DeLuca v. Merrell Dow Pharms., Inc., 791 F.Supp. 1042, 1048 (D.N.J. 1992) (re-entering summary judgment after considering Rule 702), aff’d, 6 F.3d 778 (3d Cir.1993) (per curiam), cert. denied, 510 U.S. 1044 (1994).

[30] Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharms., Inc., 951 F.2d 1128, 1131 (9th Cir. 1991).

[31] Lynch v. Merrell–National Labs., 830 F.2d 1190, 1194-95 (1st Cir.1987).

[32] Paul M. McKeigue, Steven H. Lamm, Shai Linn & Jeffrey S. Kutcher, Bendectin and Birth Defects: I. A Meta-Analysis of the Epidemiologic Studies, 50 TERATOLOGY 27 (1994). This meta-analysis made no correction for multiple comparisons in examining many different types of birth defects.

The 4th Reference Manual’s Treatment of Genetic Causes of Disease

January 23rd, 2026

After checking to see whether the new Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence[1] attended to some long overdue corrections, I turned my attention to the substance of the chapter on epidemiology. A cursory comparison between the third[2] and fourth[3] editions of the epidemiology chapter in the Reference Manual a lot of carry over from the third edition, some change in authorship, and at least one interesting change.

The two lawyer authors, Steve Gold and Michael Green, remain, but the authors with reasonable pretense to subject-matter expertise have changed. Gold and Green are both law professors with a long history of commenting on American tort and evidence law. Both are aligned with the lawsuit industry. Previous epidemiology authors, Daryl Michal Freedman and Leon Gordis are now gone from the chapter. Leon Gordis, who had been a chairman of the department of epidemiology, in the Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, died in September 2015, after the third edition was published. Daryl Michal Freedman, who been the other subject-matter expert on the third edition’s chapter on epidemiology, has been an epidemiologist with the Biostatistics Branch of the National Cancer Institute, for many years. It is not clear why he left the project.

Replacing Gordis and Freedman are Jonathan Chevrier and Brenda Eskenazi. Chevrier is an associate professor on the faculty of medicine, in the department of epidemiology, in McGill University. The focus of his work is on “common environmental contaminants,” and the role in the development and health of children. Brenda Eskenazi is professor emerita, in the University of California Berkeley School of Public Health, where she is the Director of the Center for Environmental Research and Children’s Health. Eskenazi is a member of a dodgy group known as the Collegium Ramazzini, which was responsible for staging an ex parte presentation of plaintiffs’ expert witnesses to judges presiding in asbestos litigation.[4] Eskenazi was not, however, a member of the Collegium at the time the group conspired with the late Irving Selikoff to pervert the course of justice in American asbestos litigation.

The second significant change is substantive; the fourth edition has added a new subsection to the epidemiology chapter. Comparing the texts of the third and fourth editions of this chapter reveals a new subheading in the new edition:[5]

Genetic and Molecular Epidemiologic Studies

Alas, there is not as much substance to the new subsection, which is less than four pages. Lawyers in the trenches might well have hoped for more substantive treatment of genetic epidemiology, and genetic causation. The chapter’s authors explain their abbreviated treatment with the comment:

“Although commentators have long forecast that the output of genetic and molecular epidemiology would revolutionize causal proof, as of this writing few judicial opinions have addressed these types of studies, and it is far from clear that a revolution is in the offing.”[6] 

The chapter authors are correct that some authors in the past proffered unrealistic predictions of how genetics would supplant correlational studies. Nonetheless, this area has not been as quiescent as the authors’ parsimonious treatment would suggest.

On the question of how prevalent are genetic causation issues, whether raised by plaintiffs or defendants, the chapter might have benefitted from the contributions of a practicing lawyer. Genetic issues come up with some frequency in the litigation of cases involving mesothelioma. The days of plaintiffs who had 30 years of amphibole asbestos exposure in the workplace are largely over. Today’s cases involve little to no exposure, and it stands to reason that the origins of the recently diagnosed cases are different from those diagnosed in the 1970s and 1980s.[7] Genetic cause of mesothelioma is a salient current issue that is passed over in this new Reference Manual.

The authors acknowledge a single birth defects case in which genetic causation was litigated,[8] which was already old news when the last edition of the Manual was published. There are now many more reported cases that cry out for discussion in this under-covered area of the Manual.[9] There are also many cases not reported that have turned on genetic issues. For instance, in some cancer and birth defect cases, the existence of a highly penetrant genetic mutation that could explain the occurrence of a disease completely raises a serious question whether the plaintiff who fails to test for the mutation can possibly have carried his burden of proof.[10] And then there are myriad cases in which the parties have engaged in motion practice, sometimes extended, over access to genetic testing materials.

Genetic issues have arisen in the litigation of high-profile general causation disputes. For instance, the failure to control for genetic effects in epidemiologic studies was a significant issue in the acetaminophen-autism litigation, with both sides presenting geneticists to explain whether the relevant studies were undermined by failure to control for genetic effects.[11]

In the Manual’s epidemiology chapter’s new section on genetics, the authors describe some basic terms and explain that genetic epidemiology may provide evidence for, or against, claims of health effects. The authors’ views come through most clearly in the following short passage:

“Alternatively, genetic epidemiology may reveal associations between genetic variations and a plaintiff’s disease, raising the issue of whether or not a genetic variation may be a competing cause of the disease. This requires assessment of whether the gene–disease association is causal in a general sense, whether it acts independently of the exposure, and whether it is a competing cause in the plaintiff’s specific instance. The extreme, though not typical, example would be a health outcome or disease entirely determined by genetics, 55 as is the case with sickle cell anemia.56[12]

The authors never explain or defend their claim that cases involving diseases caused entirely by genetics are “extreme” and “not typical.” At several points, the authors emphasize that gene-environment interactions are the more prevalent determinants of diseases.[13] If we were to catalog the currently known genetic determinants of diseases, the authors may be correct on a percentage basis, but the issue in any given case is whether the disease or harm claimed by the plaintiff is one of the “extreme” cases of complete genetic causation, or an instance of genetic susceptibility. The authors’ generalization, even if it were correct, would not be very helpful or informative for any specific case.

Perhaps even more important for lawyers, there is a substantive issue on which the new chapter manages to provide confusing guidance. The epidemiology chapter appears to create a false dichotomy between rare, highly penetrant genetic mutations that are uncommon causes of certain diseases, and the more prevalent genetic mutations and polymorphisms that leave persons more susceptible to the deleterious effects of exogenous exposures to toxic chemicals.[14] There is, however, another scenario omitted in the chapter’s discussion of genetic causation. Genetic mutations and polymorphisms may leave persons susceptible to normal, endogenous chemicals, stochastic cellular events, and biological processes that result in diseases such as cancers. In other words, the knee-jerk reflex to invoke exogenous, external toxic chemical exposures promotes a false dichotomy and obscures the obvious implication that susceptibility mutations and polymorphisms may lead to cancer without environmental exposures to harmful chemicals.[15]

The number of endogenous events leading to DNA alterations is enormous, and requires us to rethink the mantra that attributes chronic diseases to gene-environment interaction. At the very least, we need to stop thinking of “environment” as chemical exposures from without ourselves. The epidemiology chapter authors, like many writers, point to external chemical exposures as the culprits in gene-environment reactions, but they ignore the normal, endogenous events that lead to DNA damage, for which genetic susceptibility may be relevant. Mutations that result in increased susceptibility to cancer may affect DNA alterations from both endogenous and metabolic factors as well as from exposures to external chemicals.

Ignorance is never a good thing, and the chapter does the bar and bench a disservice in not adequately exploring genetic susceptibility in view of both exogenous and endogenous exposures that may be responsible for chronic diseases, such as cancers.


[1] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE (4th ed. 2025) (cited as RMSE 4th ed.)

[2] Michael D. Green, D. Michal Freedman & Leon Gordis, Reference Guide on Epidemiology, 549, in RMSE 3rd ed.

[3] Steve C. Gold, Michael D. Green, Jonathan Chevrier, & Brenda Eskenazi, Reference Guide on Epidemiology, in RMSE 4th ed.

[4] See In re School Asbestos Litigation, 977 F.2d 764 (3d Cir. 1992). See also Cathleen M. Devlin, Disqualification of Federal Judges – Third Circuit Orders District Judge James McGirr Kelly to Disqualify Himself So As To Preserve ‘The Appearance of Justice’ Under 28 U.S.C. § 455 – In re School Asbestos Litigation (1992), 38 VILL. L. REV. 1219 (1993); Bruce A. Green, May Judges Attend Privately Funded Educational Programs? Should Judicial Education Be Privatized?:  Questions of Judicial Ethics and Policy, 29 FORDHAM URB. L. J. 941, 996-98 (2002).

[5] Steve Gold, et al., Reference Guide on Epidemiology, at 914, in RMSE 4th ed.

[6] Id. at 916.

[7] ToxicoGenomica, The Litigator’s Guide to Using Genomics in a Toxic Tort Case (2018).

[8] Id. at 917 & n.55 (citing Bowen v. E.I. Du Pont de Nemours & Co., No. CIV.A. 97C-06-194 CH, 2005 WL 1952859 (Del. Super. Ct. June 23, 2005), aff’d, 906 A.2d 787 (Del. 2006) (discussing the importance of a test for a genetic mutation, which was the defense’s alternative causation theory to plaintiff’s claim that a toxic exposure caused the birth defect at issue). The authors fail to mention that the Bowen case was actually dismissed.

[9] See, e.g., Oliver v. Sec’y Health & Human Servs., 900 F.3d 1357 (Fed. Cir. 2018); Ortega v. United States, 2021 WL 4477896, 2021 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 188969 (N.D.Ill. Sept. 30, 2021); Vanslembrouck ex rel. Braverman v. Halperin, 2014 WL 5462596 (Mich. App. 2014).

[10] See, e.g., Halter v. Boehringer Ingelheim Pharms. Inc., no. 2023-L-001382, Cir. Ct. Cook Cty., Illinois, jury verdict (Aug. 27, 2025) (defense verdict in colorectal cancer case in which plaintiff failed to test for genetic mutation); see also Lauraann Wood, Boehringer Wins Another Zantac Cancer Trial In Illinois, LAW360, Chicago (Aug. 27, 2025).

[11] See, e.g., In re Acetaminophen – ASD-ADHD Prods. Liab. Litig., 707 F.Supp.3d 309, 320  (S.D.N.Y. 2023).

[12] Id. at 916-17 (emphasis added).

[13] Id. at 915.

[14] See, e.g., id. at 967n.190, citing McMillan v. Dep’t of Veterans Affairs, 294 F. Supp. 2d 305, 312 (E.D.N.Y. 2003) (“It is generally accepted that genetic susceptibility plays a key role in determining the adverse effects of environmental chemicals. . . . [I]f polymorphisms of the gene encoding the AhR [protein] exist in humans as they do in laboratory animals, some people would be at greater risk or at lesser risk for the toxic and carcinogenic effects of TCDD [dioxin].”).

[15] See Edward J. Calabrese, Changing the paradigm: The biggest polluter and threat to your health is your body, J. OCCUP. & ENVT’L HYG. (2025), published on-line, ahead of print.

Signature Diseases in the New Reference Manual

January 16th, 2026

The third edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence[1] had some problems with its discussion of so-called signature diseases.[2] There was a distinct need for the  epidemiology chapter in particular to improve in its fourth edition[3] on the issue of so-called signature diseases, diseases caused by only a single cause. The third edition carved out a limited exception to its questionable generalization that epidemiology had nothing useful to say about specific causation by stating that some diseases do not occur without exposure to a specific chemical or substance.

The new, fourth edition carries forward its assertion that “[t]here are some diseases that do not occur without exposure to an agent; these are known as signature diseases.”[4] And in a footnote, the authors of the epidemiology chapter, fourth edition, attempt to explain:

“There are, however, some diseases that do not occur without exposure to a given toxic agent. This is the same as saying that the toxic agent is a necessary cause for the disease, and the disease is sometimes referred to as a signature disease (also, the agent is pathognomonic) because the existence of the disease necessarily implies the causal role of the agent. Two examples are asbestosis, which is a signature disease for asbestos, and vaginal adenocarcinoma (in young adult women), which is a signature disease for in utero DES exposure. See Kenneth S. Abraham & Richard A. Merrill, Scientific Uncertainty in the Courts, in Issues Sci. & Tech. 93, 101 (1986).”[5]

Much of this language in the footnote is repeated from the third edition, as is the citation to the article by Abraham and Merrill. That article was written by lawyers, not scientists, and is now 40 years old, inaccurate and out of date.

With respect to asbestosis, the epidemiology chapter is correct, at least in part. By definition, only asbestos can cause asbestosis, but asbestosis presents clinically in ways that are indistinguishable in many cases from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and other interstitial fibrotic diseases of the lungs. Over the years, the diagnostic criteria for asbestosis have changed, but these criteria have always had a specificity and sensitivity less than 100%. Saying that a case of asbestosis must have been caused by asbestos begs the clinical question whether the case really is asbestosis. The situation might be clearer for a pathology diagnosis of asbestosis, but even then there is often the problem of coincidental findings of asbestos bodies in the presence of interstitial fibrosis from another cause.

On the other hand, the chapter’s characterization of vaginal adenocarcinoma as a signature disease of in utero DES exposure is clearly not correct.  Although this cancer in young women is rather rare, there is a baseline risk that allows the calculation of relative risks for young women exposed in utero.[6] In older women, the relative risks are lower because the baseline risks are higher, and because the effect of DES is diminished for older onset cases.[7] The disease, however, was known before the use of DES in pregnant women, which began after World War II,[8] and thus not an apt or accurate example of signature disease.

The Reference Manual should really not weigh in on controversies that may arise in courtroom litigations, unless it has a very solid basis. Here the chapter on epidemiology cited to a decades old article, by lawyers, on a technical topic. The proposition about DES was readily falsified by a wee bit of research in PubMed.


[1] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE (3rd ed. 2011) (cited as RMSE 3rd ed.)

[2] See Schachtman, Reference Manual – Desiderata for 4th Edition – Part I – Signature Diseases, TORTINI (Jan. 30, 2023); see also Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence v4.0 (Feb. 28, 2021); Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence – 3rd Edition is Past Its Expiry (Oct. 17, 2021).

[3] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine & Federal Judicial Center, REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE (4th ed. 2025) (cited as RMSE 4th ed.).

[4] RMSE 4th ed. at 927-28 n.90.

[5] RMSE 4th at 990 n.274, citing Kenneth S. Abraham & Richard A. Merrill, Scientific Uncertainty in the Courts, 2 ISSUES SCI. & TECH. 93, 101 (Winter 1986). Thankfully, the new epidemiology chapter did not put its finger on the scale about the now discredited view that mesothelioma is a signature disease of asbestos exposure. See Michele Carbone, Harvey Pass, et al., “Medical and Surgical Care of Patients With Mesothelioma and Their Relatives Carrying Germline BAP1 Mutations,” 17 J. THORACIC ONCOL. 873 (2022). See also Mitchell Cheung, et al., Novel LRRK2 mutations and other rare, non-BAP1-related candidate tumor predisposition gene variants in high-risk cancer families with mesothelioma and other tumors, 30 HUMAN MOL. GENETICS 1750 (2021); Thomas Wiesner, et al., “Toward an Improved Definition of the Tumor Spectrum Associated With BAP1 Germline Mutations,” 30 J. CLIN. ONCOL. e337 (2012); Alexandra M. Haugh, et al., Genotypic and Phenotypic Features of BAP1 Cancer Syndrome: A Report of 8 New Families and Review of Cases in the Literature, 153 J.AM. MED. ASS’N DERMATOL. 999 (2017).

[6] See, e.g., Kadir Güzin, et al.,Primary clear cell carcinoma of the vagina that is not related to in utero diethylstilbestrol use,” 3 GYNECOL. SURG. 281 (2006).

[7] Janneke Verloop, et al., Cancer risk in DES daughters, 21 CANCER CAUSES & CONTROL 999 (2010).

[8] See Risk Factors for Vaginal CancerAmerican Cancer Soc’y website (last visited Jan. 16, 2026).