By the time the third edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (RMSE) arrived in 2011, the work had evolved into a massive doorstop. The third edition generally got favorable, but unsearching, reviews. In some ways it was an impressive effort, but it left a lot to be desired in terms of comprehensiveness and consistency.[1] A decade passed, and the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), along with the Federal Judicial Center, opened work on a fourth edition, in early 2021.[2]
A look at the NASEM website shows that work on the fourth edition of the RMSE is now completed. There is, however, no announced publication date. The website’s description of the RMSE project suggests that the fourth edition will continue the practice of individual chapters with different authors. The topics to be covered are listed as:
Behavioral and Social Sciences, Biology and Life Sciences, Computers and Information Technology, Earth Sciences, Education, Engineering and Technology, Environment and Environmental Studies, Health and Medicine, Math, Chemistry, and Physics, Policy for Science and Technology, and Surveys and Statistics.
It seems unlikely that the chapters will actually track these topics. Previous editions had specific chapters on epidemiology, toxicology, regression, and clinical medicine, among others. The listing of topics strikes me as a higher level of generality than the actual chapter headings.
The following project description is provided:
“In collaboration with the Federal Judicial Center (FJC), a committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will develop the fourth edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence. The Reference Manual is a primary reference source for federal judges on questions of science in litigation. It does not instruct judges on how to rule regarding admissibility of particular types of evidence, but instead offers judges advice on how to manage expert testimony, discusses emerging problems with expert testimony, and provides information on the methodology of areas of science that often present difficult issues when introduced in the form of expert testimony.
The manual is a compilation of individually-authored chapters on various topics of science and technology relevant to the courts, The fourth edition will include updates of existing chapters as well as new chapters that reflect emerging areas. The committee will select the topics to be included in the manual, commission expert authors to revise the current chapters or draft new ones, approve the chapters, and submit the manual for external review.”
This description, at least as to previous editions, seems misleading. The first, second, and third editions contained very specific advice on specific issues. Indeed, it is unfathomable how a reference manual could avoid prescriptive judgments as to how scientific judgments should and should not be reached.
The Co-Chairs of the fourth edition are Hon. Nancy D. Freudenthal and Dr. Fred H. Gage. Members of the committee responsible for the new edition are:
Dr. Russ B. Altman (biomedical data, pharmacogenomics)
Hon. David G. Campbell (D. Ariz.)
Dr. Alicia L. Carriquiry (statistics, forensics)
Dr. Lynn R. Goldman (occupational and environmental health)
Dr. Brian W. Kernighan (engineering)
Dr. Pramod P. Khargonekar (engineering)
Hon. Goodwin Liu (California Supreme Court)
Dr. Shobita Parthasarathy (science, technology, and public policy)
Hon. Patti B. Saris (D. Mass.)
Hon. Thomas Schroeder (M.D.N.C.)
Hon. David S. Tatel (6th Circuit)
The Staff Officer for the project is Dr. Anne-Marie C. Mazza.
There is much that is needed in a new edition. We will soon know whether the wait was worth it.[3]
[1] See, e.g., Adam Dutkiewicz, “Book Review: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Third Edition,” 28 Thomas M. Cooley L. Rev. 343 (2011); John A. Budny, “Book Review: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Third Edition,” 31 Internat’l J. Toxicol. 95 (2012); James F. Rogers, Jim Shelson, and Jessalyn H. Zeigler, “Changes in the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (Third Edition),” Internat’l Ass’n Def. Csl. Drug, Device & Biotech. Comm. Newsltr. (June 2012). See Schachtman “New Reference Manual’s Uneven Treatment of Conflicts of Interest,” Tortini (Oct. 12, 2011).
[2] Schachtman,“Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence v4.0” Tortini (Feb. 28, 2021); Schachtman, “People Get Ready – There’s A Reference Manual A’Comin’,” Tortini (July 16, 2021); “Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence – 3rd Edition is Past Its Expiry” Tortini (Oct. 17, 2021).
[3] I have written elsewhere of some of the issues that cry out for attention. Schachtman, “Reference Manual – Desiderata for the 4th Edition – Part I – Signature Diseases,” Tortini (Jan. 30, 2023); “Reference Manual – Desiderata for the 4th Edition – Part II – Epidemiology and Specific Causation,” Tortini (Jan. 31, 2023); “Reference Manual – Desiderata for the 4th Edition – Part III – Differential Diagnosis,” Tortini (Feb. 1, 2023); “Reference Manual – Desiderata for the 4th Edition – Part IV – Confidence Intervals,” Tortini (Feb. 10, 2023); “Reference Manual – Desiderata for the 4th Edition – Part V – Specific Tortogens,” Tortini (Feb. 14, 2023); “Reference Manual – Desiderata for the 4th Edition – Part VI – Rule 703,” Tortini (Feb. 17, 2023).
